Form, Standings, Stats
Saturday, April 15 at 12pm in League One
Saturday, April 15 at 3pm in League One
We said: Exeter City 1-2 Derby County
Exeter's results have experienced a dip during a difficult run of fixtures, and the visit of a playoff-chasing Derby on Tuesday night will be another tricky test. Warne's men know a victory at St James Park could move them as high as fifth with just three matches left to play - we believe the Rams will end their spell of draws in this one with a vital maximum. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 45.24%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 28.46% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.02%) and 0-2 (8.29%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 1-0 (8.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Derby County in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Derby County.
| Result | ||
| Exeter City | Draw | Derby County |
28.46% ( 0.06) | 26.29% ( -0.01) | 45.24% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 50.65% ( 0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.42% ( 0.05) | 53.57% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.92% ( 0.04) | 75.08% ( -0.05) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.3% ( 0.07) | 33.69% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 29.65% ( 0.08) | 70.34% ( -0.08) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.39% ( -0) | 23.6% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.31% ( -0) | 57.68% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Exeter City | Draw | Derby County |
| 1-0 @ 8.65% ( -0) 2-1 @ 6.8% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4.71% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.71% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.36% Total : 28.47% | 1-1 @ 12.49% 0-0 @ 7.95% ( -0.02)2-2 @ 4.91% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.95% Total : 26.29% | 0-1 @ 11.48% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 9.02% ( -0)0-2 @ 8.29% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 4.34% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.99% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.36% ( 0.01)1-4 @ 1.57% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.44% ( -0)Other @ 2.76% Total : 45.24% |
How you voted: Exeter vs Derby
Smith (17')
