League One | Gameweek 41
Apr 10, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
Derby1 - 1MK Dons
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Forest Green 0-2 Derby
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in League One
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in League One
Last Game: MK Dons 1-1 Portsmouth
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in League One
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in League One
We said: Derby County 2-0 MK Dons
Even though the Dons have been the more consistent side over the past few weeks, we believe Derby are well-suited to beat the visitors because they are sharp on set pieces, aerial duels and attacking down the wings, all things that MK have had trouble dealing with all season. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 62.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for MK Dons had a probability of 16.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.15%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a MK Dons win it was 0-1 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | MK Dons |
62.81% ( -0.02) | 21.05% ( 0) | 16.13% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 50.64% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.53% ( 0.03) | 45.46% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.2% ( 0.03) | 67.8% ( -0.02) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.14% ( 0) | 13.86% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 58.75% ( 0.01) | 41.25% ( 0) |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.79% ( 0.05) | 41.21% ( -0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 22.26% ( 0.04) | 77.74% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
Derby County 62.8%
MK Dons 16.13%
Draw 21.05%
| Derby County | Draw | MK Dons |
| 1-0 @ 11.28% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 11.15% ( -0.01)2-1 @ 9.89% ( 0)3-0 @ 7.35% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 6.51% ( 0)4-0 @ 3.63% ( -0)4-1 @ 3.22% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.89% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.44% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.43% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.27% Other @ 2.76% Total : 62.8% | 1-1 @ 10% 0-0 @ 5.71% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 4.38% ( 0)Other @ 0.95% Total : 21.05% | 0-1 @ 5.06% ( 0) 1-2 @ 4.44% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 2.24% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.31% ( 0)2-3 @ 1.3% ( 0)Other @ 1.79% Total : 16.13% |
How you voted: Derby vs MK Dons
Derby County
66.7%Draw
13.3%MK Dons
20.0%15
Head to Head
Nov 12, 2022 3pm
Feb 13, 2016 3pm
Sep 26, 2015 12.30pm
Mar 4, 2000 3pm
Sep 11, 1999 3pm
