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League One | Gameweek 41
Apr 10, 2023 at 3pm UK
Pride Park Stadium
MK Dons

Derby
1 - 1
MK Dons

McGoldrick (17')
Rooney (70'), Roberts (84')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Lawrence (68')
Maghoma (24'), Watson (74')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Monday's League One clash between Derby County and MK Dons, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Derby County

All competitions
Last Game: Forest Green 0-2 Derby
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in League One

MK Dons

All competitions
Last Game: MK Dons 1-1 Portsmouth
Friday, April 7 at 3pm in League One

We said: Derby County 2-0 MK Dons

 Even though the Dons have been the more consistent side over the past few weeks, we believe Derby are well-suited to beat the visitors because they are sharp on set pieces, aerial duels and attacking down the wings, all things that MK have had trouble dealing with all season. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 62.81%. A draw had a probability of 21.1% and a win for MK Dons had a probability of 16.13%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.15%) and 2-1 (9.89%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10%), while for a MK Dons win it was 0-1 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.

Result
Derby CountyDrawMK Dons
62.81% (-0.021000000000001 -0.02) 21.05% (0.0030000000000001 0) 16.13% (0.023999999999997 0.02)
Both teams to score 50.64% (0.042000000000002 0.04)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
54.53% (0.027000000000001 0.03)45.46% (-0.023000000000003 -0.02)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
32.2% (0.027000000000001 0.03)67.8% (-0.021999999999991 -0.02)
Derby County Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
86.14% (0.0049999999999955 0)13.86%
Over 1.5Under 1.5
58.75% (0.0050000000000026 0.01)41.25% (0.0010000000000048 0)
MK Dons Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
58.79% (0.047999999999995 0.05)41.21% (-0.040999999999997 -0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
22.26% (0.039999999999999 0.04)77.74% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03)
Score Analysis
    Derby County 62.8%
    MK Dons 16.13%
    Draw 21.05%
Derby CountyDrawMK Dons
1-0 @ 11.28% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-0 @ 11.15% (-0.0099999999999998 -0.01)
2-1 @ 9.89% (0.0020000000000007 0)
3-0 @ 7.35% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-1 @ 6.51% (0.0010000000000003 0)
4-0 @ 3.63% (-0.004 -0)
4-1 @ 3.22% (0.00099999999999989 0)
3-2 @ 2.89% (0.004 0)
5-0 @ 1.44% (-0.00099999999999989 -0)
4-2 @ 1.43% (0.002 0)
5-1 @ 1.27%
Other @ 2.76%
Total : 62.8%
1-1 @ 10%
0-0 @ 5.71% (-0.0059999999999993 -0.01)
2-2 @ 4.38% (0.0049999999999999 0)
Other @ 0.95%
Total : 21.05%
0-1 @ 5.06% (0.00099999999999945 0)
1-2 @ 4.44% (0.0059999999999993 0.01)
0-2 @ 2.24% (0.0030000000000001 0)
1-3 @ 1.31% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.3% (0.0029999999999999 0)
Other @ 1.79%
Total : 16.13%

How you voted: Derby vs MK Dons

Derby County
66.7%
Draw
13.3%
MK Dons
20.0%
15
Head to Head
Nov 12, 2022 3pm
MK Dons
1-3
Derby
Barry (41')
Roberts (43'), Collins (53'), Mendez-Laing (79')
Mendez-Laing (39')
Feb 13, 2016 3pm
Derby
0-1
MK Dons

Johnson (39'), Hendrick (72')
Forster-Caskey (82')
Maynard (45'), Carruthers (46')
Sep 26, 2015 12.30pm
MK Dons
1-3
Derby
> Match Report
Mar 4, 2000 3pm
Derby
4-0
MK Dons
Kinkladze (65'), Christie (71'), Burton (89'), Sturridge (90')
Sep 11, 1999 3pm
MK Dons
2-2
Derby
Euell (63'), Hartson (62')
Carbonari (14'), Johnson (81')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Birmingham CityBirmingham26186244182660
2Wycombe WanderersWycombe28177454292558
3Wrexham28157641241752
4Huddersfield TownHuddersfield27146739231648
5Stockport CountyStockport28138743281547
6Leyton Orient27135940241644
7Bolton WanderersBolton28135104342144
8Charlton AthleticCharlton2712783426843
9Barnsley28126104139242
10Reading27125104241141
11Lincoln CityLincoln28108103433138
12Mansfield TownMansfield26114113432237
13Blackpool2791083938137
14Rotherham UnitedRotherham27107103231137
15Stevenage2610792324-137
16Wigan AthleticWigan2796122627-133
17Exeter CityExeter2895143242-1032
18Peterborough UnitedPeterborough2886144452-830
19Bristol Rovers2784152543-1828
20Northampton TownNorthampton2869132543-1827
21Burton Albion2859143044-1424
22Crawley TownCrawley2666142646-2024
23Cambridge UnitedCambridge2756162849-2121
24Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury2755172647-2120
> League One Full Table


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