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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 59.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.8% and a win for Forest Green Rovers had a probability of 17.94%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.13%) and 1-2 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.83%), while for a Forest Green Rovers win it was 1-0 (6.01%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 11.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
Result | ||
Forest Green Rovers | Draw | Derby County |
17.94% ( 0.02) | 22.8% ( 0.01) | 59.25% ( -0.02) |
Both teams to score 48.82% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.2% ( -0) | 49.79% ( 0) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.2% ( -0) | 71.8% ( 0) |
Forest Green Rovers Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
58.43% ( 0.01) | 41.56% ( -0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
21.94% ( 0.01) | 78.05% ( -0.01) |
Derby County Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
83.54% ( -0.01) | 16.46% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
53.84% ( -0.02) | 46.15% ( 0.02) |
Score Analysis |
Forest Green Rovers | Draw | Derby County |
1-0 @ 6.01% ( 0) 2-1 @ 4.76% ( 0) 2-0 @ 2.64% ( 0) 3-1 @ 1.39% ( 0) 3-2 @ 1.26% ( 0) Other @ 1.89% Total : 17.94% | 1-1 @ 10.83% 0-0 @ 6.84% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.29% ( 0) Other @ 0.84% Total : 22.8% | 0-1 @ 12.34% 0-2 @ 11.13% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 9.78% ( -0) 0-3 @ 6.7% ( -0) 1-3 @ 5.88% ( -0) 0-4 @ 3.02% ( -0) 1-4 @ 2.65% ( -0) 2-3 @ 2.58% 2-4 @ 1.16% ( -0) 0-5 @ 1.09% ( -0) 1-5 @ 0.96% ( -0) Other @ 1.96% Total : 59.25% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |