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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wigan Athletic win with a probability of 45.61%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 28.77% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wigan Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.67%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.17%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 0-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wigan Athletic would win this match.
Result | ||
Wigan Athletic | Draw | Carlisle United |
45.61% ( 0.12) | 25.61% ( 0.02) | 28.77% ( -0.13) |
Both teams to score 52.95% ( -0.14) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.32% ( -0.14) | 50.68% ( 0.14) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.42% ( -0.13) | 72.58% ( 0.12) |
Wigan Athletic Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.81% ( -0.01) | 22.19% ( 0.01) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.4% ( -0.01) | 55.6% ( 0.01) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.05% ( -0.17) | 31.95% ( 0.17) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.6% ( -0.2) | 68.4% ( 0.2) |
Score Analysis |
Wigan Athletic | Draw | Carlisle United |
1-0 @ 10.67% ( 0.06) 2-1 @ 9.17% ( 0) 2-0 @ 8.03% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 4.6% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.03% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.73% 4-0 @ 1.52% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( -0) Other @ 2.25% Total : 45.61% | 1-1 @ 12.17% 0-0 @ 7.09% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.23% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.6% | 0-1 @ 8.09% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 6.95% ( -0.03) 0-2 @ 4.62% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.64% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.02) 0-3 @ 1.76% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.73% Total : 28.77% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 19 |
2 | Wrexham | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 17 |
3 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 14 |
4 | Blackpool | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 14 |
5 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
6 | Barnsley | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 14 |
7 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 3 | 13 |
8 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 13 |
9 | Stockport CountyStockport | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 12 |
10 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12 | 10 | 2 | 12 |
11 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
12 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 0 | 11 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 6 | 2 | 10 |
14 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
15 | Reading | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 10 |
16 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
17 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
18 | Leyton Orient | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 |
19 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
20 | Crawley TownCrawley | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 7 |
21 | Bristol Rovers | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 13 | -6 | 7 |
22 | Burton Albion | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 4 |
23 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 4 |
24 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 |
> League One Full Table |