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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 45.39%. A win for Northampton Town had a probability of 28.71% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.1%) and 2-0 (8.13%). The likeliest Northampton Town win was 0-1 (8.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.32%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.
Result | ||
Carlisle United | Draw | Northampton Town |
45.39% ( 0.12) | 25.9% ( -0.03) | 28.71% ( -0.09) |
Both teams to score 52% ( 0.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
48.1% ( 0.08) | 51.9% ( -0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
26.35% ( 0.07) | 73.65% ( -0.07) |
Carlisle United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.18% ( 0.09) | 22.81% ( -0.09) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
43.47% ( 0.13) | 56.53% ( -0.13) |
Northampton Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.37% ( -0.03) | 32.63% ( 0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.83% ( -0.03) | 69.17% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Carlisle United | Draw | Northampton Town |
1-0 @ 11% 2-1 @ 9.1% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 8.13% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 4.48% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 4% ( 0.02) 3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.01) 4-1 @ 1.66% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.48% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.09% Total : 45.39% | 1-1 @ 12.32% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 7.44% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.1% ( 0) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 0.1% Total : 25.9% | 0-1 @ 8.34% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 6.9% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.67% ( -0.02) 1-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.9% 0-3 @ 1.74% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.58% Total : 28.71% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Wycombe WanderersWycombe | 20 | 13 | 5 | 2 | 43 | 22 | 21 | 44 |
2 | Birmingham CityBirmingham | 18 | 13 | 3 | 2 | 34 | 16 | 18 | 42 |
3 | Wrexham | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 14 | 17 | 42 |
4 | Huddersfield TownHuddersfield | 20 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 16 | 39 |
5 | Stockport CountyStockport | 21 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 36 |
6 | Lincoln CityLincoln | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 31 |
7 | Reading | 20 | 9 | 4 | 7 | 30 | 30 | 0 | 31 |
8 | Bolton WanderersBolton | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 29 | -1 | 31 |
9 | Barnsley | 21 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 30 |
10 | Mansfield TownMansfield | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 23 | 22 | 1 | 28 |
11 | Charlton AthleticCharlton | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 23 | 19 | 4 | 27 |
12 | Blackpool | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 29 | 31 | -2 | 27 |
13 | Exeter CityExeter | 20 | 8 | 3 | 9 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 27 |
14 | Stevenage | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 26 |
15 | Leyton Orient | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 23 | 20 | 3 | 25 |
16 | Peterborough UnitedPeterborough | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 24 |
17 | Wigan AthleticWigan | 20 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 19 | 18 | 1 | 24 |
18 | Rotherham UnitedRotherham | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 23 |
19 | Bristol Rovers | 20 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 29 | -11 | 22 |
20 | Northampton TownNorthampton | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 21 | 34 | -13 | 21 |
21 | Crawley TownCrawley | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 19 |
22 | Cambridge UnitedCambridge | 20 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 20 | 35 | -15 | 17 |
23 | Burton Albion | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 17 | 32 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Shrewsbury TownShrewsbury | 20 | 3 | 3 | 14 | 21 | 41 | -20 | 12 |
> League One Full Table |