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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 42.84%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 32.45% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.76%) and 2-0 (6.81%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 1-2 (7.65%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood.
Result | ||
MK Dons | Draw | Port Vale |
42.84% ( -0.09) | 24.71% ( 0.02) | 32.45% ( 0.07) |
Both teams to score 57.84% ( -0.05) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.85% ( -0.08) | 45.15% ( 0.08) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
32.5% ( -0.08) | 67.5% ( 0.07) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
78.86% ( -0.08) | 21.14% ( 0.07) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.01% ( -0.12) | 53.99% ( 0.12) |
Port Vale Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
73.34% ( 0) | 26.66% ( -0) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
38.09% ( 0.01) | 61.9% ( -0.01) |
Score Analysis |
MK Dons | Draw | Port Vale |
2-1 @ 9% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 8.76% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.81% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 4.66% ( -0.02) 3-0 @ 3.53% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 3.08% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 1.81% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.37% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.2% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.63% Total : 42.84% | 1-1 @ 11.57% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 5.95% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.36% ( -0) Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.7% | 1-2 @ 7.65% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 7.45% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 4.92% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 3.37% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.62% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2.17% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.11% ( 0) Other @ 3.15% Total : 32.45% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 24 | 16 | 8 | 33 |
2 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 28 |
3 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 18 | 4 | 28 |
4 | Walsall | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 12 | 27 |
5 | MK Dons | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 27 | 19 | 8 | 27 |
6 | Notts County | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 27 |
7 | Grimsby Town | 16 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 19 | 25 | -6 | 25 |
8 | AFC Wimbledon | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 23 |
9 | Bradford CityBradford | 16 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 21 | 17 | 4 | 23 |
10 | Gillingham | 15 | 7 | 2 | 6 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 23 |
11 | Chesterfield | 16 | 5 | 7 | 4 | 29 | 20 | 9 | 22 |
12 | BarrowBarrow | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 22 |
13 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 21 |
14 | Salford City | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 21 |
15 | Newport CountyNewport | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | 19 | 26 | -7 | 20 |
16 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 18 |
17 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 21 | 25 | -4 | 18 |
18 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 14 | 22 | -8 | 18 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 17 | -7 | 17 |
20 | Bromley | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 16 |
21 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 15 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 22 | -4 | 14 |
22 | Swindon TownSwindon | 16 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 13 |
23 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 16 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 29 | -15 | 12 |
24 | Morecambe | 16 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 14 | 27 | -13 | 10 |
> League Two Full Table |