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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 49.81%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 25.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.56%) and 0-2 (8.54%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
Result | ||
Harrogate Town | Draw | MK Dons |
25.79% ( -0.72) | 24.4% ( 0.39) | 49.81% ( 0.33) |
Both teams to score 54.46% ( -1.93) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
52.4% ( -2.24) | 47.6% ( 2.24) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.2% ( -2.1) | 69.8% ( 2.1) |
Harrogate Town Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.36% ( -1.75) | 32.64% ( 1.76) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
30.81% ( -2.01) | 69.19% ( 2.01) |
MK Dons Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
80.85% ( -0.73) | 19.15% ( 0.74) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
49.21% ( -1.23) | 50.79% ( 1.23) |
Score Analysis |
Harrogate Town | Draw | MK Dons |
1-0 @ 7% ( 0.32) 2-1 @ 6.48% ( -0.17) 2-0 @ 3.92% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 2.42% ( -0.18) 3-2 @ 2% ( -0.2) 3-0 @ 1.46% ( -0.08) Other @ 2.52% Total : 25.79% | 1-1 @ 11.56% ( 0.26) 0-0 @ 6.25% ( 0.56) 2-2 @ 5.35% ( -0.27) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.14) Other @ 0.14% Total : 24.4% | 0-1 @ 10.33% ( 0.71) 1-2 @ 9.56% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 8.54% ( 0.4) 1-3 @ 5.27% ( -0.13) 0-3 @ 4.71% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.22) 1-4 @ 2.18% ( -0.11) 0-4 @ 1.95% ( 0) 2-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.12) Other @ 3.12% Total : 49.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Port Vale | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 12 | 4 | 21 |
2 | Doncaster RoversDoncaster | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 20 |
3 | Notts County | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 19 |
4 | Walsall | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 19 |
5 | Gillingham | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 19 |
6 | BarrowBarrow | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 8 | 5 | 19 |
7 | Bradford CityBradford | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 18 |
8 | Grimsby Town | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 18 |
9 | Crewe AlexandraCrewe | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 17 |
10 | AFC Wimbledon | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 8 | 16 |
11 | Fleetwood TownFleetwood | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 | 9 | 7 | 16 |
12 | Chesterfield | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 15 |
13 | Newport CountyNewport | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 21 | -5 | 15 |
14 | Harrogate TownHarrogate | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 14 |
15 | MK Dons | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
16 | Salford City | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 12 |
17 | Colchester UnitedColchester | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 11 |
18 | Swindon TownSwindon | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 11 |
19 | Tranmere RoversTranmere | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 11 |
20 | Bromley | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 14 | -2 | 10 |
21 | Cheltenham TownCheltenham | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 10 |
22 | Accrington StanleyAccrington | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 9 |
23 | Morecambe | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 7 |
24 | Carlisle UnitedCarlisle | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 23 | -13 | 7 |
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