Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toluca win with a probability of 60.29%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Club Tijuana had a probability of 19.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toluca win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.76%) and 1-0 (8.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.26%), while for a Club Tijuana win it was 1-2 (5.21%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toluca would win this match.