Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monaco win with a probability of 45.75%. A win for Auxerre had a probability of 29.46% and a draw had a probability of 24.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monaco win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.27%) and 0-2 (7.58%). The likeliest Auxerre win was 1-0 (7.39%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.7%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Monaco would win this match.
Result | ||
Auxerre | Draw | Monaco |
29.46% ( 2.75) | 24.79% ( 0.21) | 45.75% ( -2.96) |
Both teams to score 56.06% ( 1.34) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
53.19% ( 0.83) | 46.81% ( -0.84) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
30.93% ( 0.77) | 69.06% ( -0.78) |
Auxerre Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.54% ( 2.47) | 29.45% ( -2.48) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.54% ( 2.92) | 65.46% ( -2.93) |
Monaco Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
79.47% ( -0.92) | 20.52% ( 0.92) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
46.97% ( -1.47) | 53.02% ( 1.47) |
Score Analysis |
Auxerre | Draw | Monaco |
1-0 @ 7.39% ( 0.24) 2-1 @ 7.15% ( 0.5) 2-0 @ 4.52% ( 0.44) 3-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.38) 3-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.25) 3-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.29) Other @ 3.34% Total : 29.46% | 1-1 @ 11.7% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.22) 2-2 @ 5.66% ( 0.25) 3-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.1) Other @ 0.16% Total : 24.78% | 0-1 @ 9.57% ( -0.63) 1-2 @ 9.27% ( -0.22) 0-2 @ 7.58% ( -0.73) 1-3 @ 4.89% ( -0.26) 0-3 @ 4% ( -0.51) 2-3 @ 2.99% ( 0.05) 1-4 @ 1.94% ( -0.16) 0-4 @ 1.58% ( -0.25) 2-4 @ 1.18% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.75% Total : 45.75% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 33 | 10 | 23 | 29 |
2 | MonacoMonaco | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 23 |
3 | Marseille | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | 9 | 20 |
4 | Lille | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 19 |
5 | Lyon | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 18 | 15 | 3 | 18 |
6 | Nice | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 10 | 17 |
7 | Reims | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 17 |
8 | Lens | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 17 |
9 | Auxerre | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 20 | 19 | 1 | 16 |
10 | Toulouse | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 11 | 2 | 15 |
11 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 22 | -2 | 13 |
12 | Brest | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 13 |
13 | Rennes | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 18 | -5 | 11 |
14 | NantesNantes | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 17 | -3 | 10 |
15 | Angers | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 10 |
16 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 10 | 25 | -15 | 10 |
17 | Le HavreLe Havre | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 9 |
18 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 31 | -20 | 7 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |