We said: Paris Saint-Germain 3-0 Auxerre
The expected return of Messi should increase PSG's creative output tenfold, and a Galtier squad almost at full-strength should have far too much for Auxerre on Sunday lunchtime.
The visitors have made a solid, if yet unspectacular start to life under Pelissier and should not ship goals at will, but the gulf in class between the two squads will show at some point.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Paris Saint-Germain win with a probability of 77.51%. A draw had a probability of 13.3% and a win for Auxerre had a probability of 9.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Paris Saint-Germain win was 2-0 with a probability of 8.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (8.69%) and 2-1 (8.44%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.78%), while for an Auxerre win it was 1-2 (2.73%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 3.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Paris Saint-Germain would win this match.