Ligue 1 | Gameweek 23
Feb 22, 2025 at 8.05pm UK
Stade de l'Abbe Deschamps
Auxerre3 - 0Marseille
We said: Auxerre 1-3 Marseille
Marseille have swept aside most challengers in recent months, moving clear in second place as they look on course to return to the Champions League, and they will be favourites against an Auxerre side that are winless in 10. The hosts have not lost here since a 3-0 defeat to Monaco in September, but few opponents will offer as tough a challenge as Marseille, and their poor recent run may continue here. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 51.56%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Auxerre had a probability of 23.33%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.67%) and 1-2 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for an Auxerre win it was 1-0 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Auxerre | Draw | Marseille |
23.33% ( -0.43) | 25.11% ( -0.03) | 51.56% ( 0.46) |
| Both teams to score 49.75% ( -0.4) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.41% ( -0.29) | 52.59% ( 0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.76% ( -0.25) | 74.24% ( 0.25) |
| Auxerre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.49% ( -0.56) | 37.5% ( 0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 25.71% ( -0.55) | 74.29% ( 0.55) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.6% ( 0.07) | 20.4% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 47.18% ( 0.12) | 52.82% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
Auxerre 23.33%
Marseille 51.56%
Draw 25.11%
| Auxerre | Draw | Marseille |
| 1-0 @ 7.5% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.1)2-0 @ 3.68% ( -0.07)3-1 @ 1.91% ( -0.06)3-2 @ 1.52% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 1.2% ( -0.04)Other @ 1.66% Total : 23.33% | 1-1 @ 11.92% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 7.65% ( 0.09)2-2 @ 4.65% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.89% Total : 25.11% | 0-1 @ 12.16% ( 0.17) 0-2 @ 9.67% ( 0.15)1-2 @ 9.48% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 5.12% ( 0.09)1-3 @ 5.02% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 2.04% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 2% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 0.98% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.63% Total : 51.56% |
How you voted: Auxerre vs Marseille
Auxerre
15.8%Draw
8.8%Marseille
75.4%57
Head to Head
Apr 30, 2023 7.45pm
May 13, 2012 4pm
Aug 14, 2011 3pm
