Ligue 1 | Gameweek 20
Feb 2, 2025 at 7.45pm UK
Stade Velodrome
Marseille3 - 2Lyon
We said: Marseille 1-0 Lyon
Despite their less-than-ideal home form, Marseille should be confident of securing maximum points at the expense of Lyon this weekend at Stade Velodrome. Les Gones will enter the contest with a new manager at the helm, although we feel that Fonseca will be unable to prevent his side's winless run from extending to seven matches across all competitions. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 43.06%. A win for Lyon had a probability of 32.87% and a draw had a probability of 24.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.98%) and 2-0 (6.47%). The likeliest Lyon win was 1-2 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Marseille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Marseille | Draw | Lyon |
43.06% ( 0.05) | 24.07% ( 0.01) | 32.87% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 60.25% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.94% ( -0.04) | 42.05% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.54% ( -0.05) | 64.46% ( 0.05) |
| Marseille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.25% ( 0.01) | 19.74% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.22% ( 0.01) | 51.78% ( -0.01) |
| Lyon Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.08% ( -0.06) | 24.92% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 40.45% ( -0.08) | 59.54% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
Marseille 43.06%
Lyon 32.87%
Draw 24.07%
| Marseille | Draw | Lyon |
| 2-1 @ 9% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.98% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.47% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 4.87% ( 0)3-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.38% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.97% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.42% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.37% ( -0)Other @ 3.1% Total : 43.06% | 1-1 @ 11.09% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.25% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.57% ( -0)Other @ 0.24% Total : 24.07% | 1-2 @ 7.71% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 6.84% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 3.57% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.9% ( -0.01)0-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.01)1-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.01% ( -0)Other @ 2.66% Total : 32.87% |
How you voted: Marseille vs Lyon
Marseille
80.6%Draw
16.7%Lyon
2.8%72
Head to Head
Sep 22, 2024 7.45pm
Gameweek 5
Lyon
2-3
Marseille
Feb 4, 2024 7.45pm
Dec 6, 2023 8pm
Gameweek 10
Marseille
3-0
Lyon
Apr 23, 2023 7.45pm
Nov 6, 2022 7.45pm
Form Guide
