Ligue 1 | Gameweek 30
Apr 20, 2025 at 2pm UK
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Lille3 - 1Auxerre
We said: Lille 2-0 Auxerre
Auxerre's impressive form on the road makes this a tricky fixture for Lille, but the hosts are also strong at home and should have enough to edge it. While the Mastiffs boast a solid scoring record on their own turf, Auxerre have kept clean sheets in two of their last four away games, suggesting this could be a relatively low-scoring affair. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 65.68%. A draw had a probability of 18.8% and a win for Auxerre had a probability of 15.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.63%) and 1-0 (8.46%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.6%), while for an Auxerre win it was 1-2 (4.37%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lille | Draw | Auxerre |
65.68% ( 0.28) | 18.77% ( -0.11) | 15.54% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 57.25% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.89% ( 0.14) | 36.11% ( -0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.78% ( 0.16) | 58.22% ( -0.16) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.72% ( 0.11) | 10.28% ( -0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 66.34% ( 0.25) | 33.66% ( -0.25) |
| Auxerre Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.81% ( -0.13) | 36.2% ( 0.13) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 27.02% ( -0.13) | 72.98% ( 0.13) |
| Score Analysis |
Lille 65.68%
Auxerre 15.54%
Draw 18.77%
| Lille | Draw | Auxerre |
| 2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 9.63% ( 0.02)1-0 @ 8.46% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 7.42% ( 0.03)3-0 @ 7.3% ( 0.05)4-1 @ 4.22% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 4.15% ( 0.05)3-2 @ 3.77% 4-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.01)5-1 @ 1.92% ( 0.03)5-0 @ 1.89% ( 0.03)5-2 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.01% Total : 65.68% | 1-1 @ 8.6% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.97% ( -0.02)0-0 @ 3.72% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.28% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.2% Total : 18.77% | 1-2 @ 4.37% ( -0.04) 0-1 @ 3.78% ( -0.04)0-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 1.68% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.31% Total : 15.54% |
How you voted: Lille vs Auxerre
Lille
72.0%Draw
24.0%Auxerre
4.0%25
Head to Head
Jan 10, 2025 8.05pm
Apr 22, 2023 4pm
Aug 7, 2022 2pm
Gameweek 1
Lille
4-1
Auxerre
Oct 29, 2013 7pm
Third Round
Lille
0-1
Auxerre
Mar 3, 2012 6pm
