Ligue 1 | Gameweek 29
Apr 12, 2025 at 6pm UK
Stadium de Toulouse (Toulouse)
Toulouse1 - 2Lille
FT(HT: 1-2)
We said: Toulouse 0-1 Lille
Only PSG have conceded fewer goals in Ligue 1 this season than Lille, so if the visitors can nick the first goal, that could be decisive in this one. There is little left for Toulouse to play for, and recent form suggests their season is fizzling out, and a motivated Lille side could prove too strong for them. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lille win with a probability of 42.29%. A win for Toulouse had a probability of 31.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lille win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (7.31%). The likeliest Toulouse win was 1-0 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lille would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Toulouse | Draw | Lille |
31.8% ( 0.3) | 25.91% ( 0.37) | 42.29% ( -0.65) |
| Both teams to score 53.53% ( -1.06) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.36% ( -1.43) | 50.64% ( 1.44) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.46% ( -1.28) | 72.55% ( 1.29) |
| Toulouse Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.21% ( -0.52) | 29.79% ( 0.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 34.14% ( -0.63) | 65.87% ( 0.64) |
| Lille Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.24% ( -0.94) | 23.76% ( 0.95) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.1% ( -1.37) | 57.9% ( 1.39) |
| Score Analysis |
Toulouse 31.8%
Lille 42.29%
Draw 25.91%
| Toulouse | Draw | Lille |
| 1-0 @ 8.57% ( 0.37) 2-1 @ 7.46% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 5.19% ( 0.15)3-1 @ 3.01% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.16% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 2.1% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 0.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 2.4% Total : 31.8% | 1-1 @ 12.31% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 7.08% ( 0.4)2-2 @ 5.36% ( -0.14)3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.07)Other @ 0.12% Total : 25.91% | 0-1 @ 10.17% ( 0.3) 1-2 @ 8.85% ( -0.11)0-2 @ 7.31% ( 0.02)1-3 @ 4.24% ( -0.17)0-3 @ 3.5% ( -0.09)2-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.14)1-4 @ 1.52% ( -0.11)0-4 @ 1.26% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 0.92% ( -0.08)Other @ 1.94% Total : 42.29% |
How you voted: Toulouse vs Lille
Toulouse
20.3%Draw
28.4%Lille
51.4%74
Head to Head
Oct 5, 2024 6pm
Gameweek 7
Lille
2-1
Toulouse
Feb 25, 2024 2pm
Nov 12, 2023 2pm
Gameweek 12
Lille
1-1
Toulouse
Mar 18, 2023 4pm
Sep 17, 2022 8pm
