Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 66.13%. A draw had a probability of 18.7% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 15.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.83%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.79%) and 1-0 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.61%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (4.29%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.
Result | ||
Lyon | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
66.13% ( 1.7) | 18.7% ( -0.53) | 15.17% ( -1.18) |
Both teams to score 56.58% ( -0.94) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
63.46% ( 0.13) | 36.53% ( -0.13) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
41.31% ( 0.14) | 58.68% ( -0.14) |
Lyon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
89.71% ( 0.46) | 10.28% ( -0.47) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
66.32% ( 1.04) | 33.68% ( -1.04) |
Montpellier HSC Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
63.07% ( -1.37) | 36.93% ( 1.37) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
26.28% ( -1.39) | 73.72% ( 1.39) |
Score Analysis |
Lyon | Draw | Montpellier HSC |
2-0 @ 9.83% ( 0.32) 2-1 @ 9.79% ( -0.04) 1-0 @ 8.64% ( 0.12) 3-0 @ 7.45% ( 0.38) 3-1 @ 7.42% ( 0.11) 4-0 @ 4.24% ( 0.3) 4-1 @ 4.22% ( 0.14) 3-2 @ 3.7% ( -0.08) 4-2 @ 2.1% ( -0.01) 5-0 @ 1.93% ( 0.17) 5-1 @ 1.92% ( 0.1) 5-2 @ 0.96% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.95% Total : 66.13% | 1-1 @ 8.61% ( -0.21) 2-2 @ 4.87% ( -0.21) 0-0 @ 3.8% ( -0.02) 3-3 @ 1.23% ( -0.08) Other @ 0.19% Total : 18.7% | 1-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.27) 0-1 @ 3.78% ( -0.17) 0-2 @ 1.88% ( -0.16) 2-3 @ 1.62% ( -0.13) 1-3 @ 1.42% ( -0.15) Other @ 2.18% Total : 15.17% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Paris Saint-GermainPSG | 16 | 12 | 4 | 0 | 44 | 14 | 30 | 40 |
2 | Marseille | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 19 | 18 | 33 |
3 | MonacoMonaco | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 30 |
4 | Lille | 16 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 26 | 16 | 10 | 28 |
5 | Lyon | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 28 | 20 | 8 | 28 |
6 | Nice | 16 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 31 | 21 | 10 | 27 |
7 | Lens | 16 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 19 | 15 | 4 | 24 |
8 | Toulouse | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 24 |
9 | Auxerre | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 24 | 26 | -2 | 21 |
10 | StrasbourgStrasbourg | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 28 | 28 | 0 | 20 |
11 | Reims | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 21 | 21 | 0 | 20 |
12 | Brest | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 24 | 29 | -5 | 19 |
13 | Rennes | 16 | 5 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 23 | -1 | 17 |
14 | Angers | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 16 |
15 | Saint-EtienneSt Etienne | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 35 | -20 | 16 |
16 | NantesNantes | 16 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 15 |
17 | Le HavreLe Havre | 16 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 12 | 34 | -22 | 12 |
18 | Montpellier HSCMontpellier | 16 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 15 | 39 | -24 | 9 |
> Ligue 1 Full Table |