Ligue 1

Ligue 1 | Gameweek 21

Feb 11, 2024 at 4.05pm UK

Stade de la Mosson

Montpellier
1 - 2
Lyon

Nordin (23')
Ferri (90')

FT(HT: 1-0)

Lacazette (74'), Caqueret (82')
Tagliafico (28'), Orban (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Montpellier HSC and Lyon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Montpellier HSC

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Montpellier 1-4 Nice
Wednesday, February 7 at 7.30pm in Coupe de France

Goals
for

Lyon

All competitions

Ligue 1

Last Game: Lyon 2-1 Lille
Wednesday, February 7 at 5.30pm in Coupe de France

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Montpellier HSC 0-1 Lyon

Assuming the role of stalemate specialists at home, Montpellier are seldom outfought on their own patch - barring their midweek cup humiliation - and a Lyon side also nursing jellied legs will not have it all their own way at the Stade de la Mosson. Making the net ripple on the road has been an issue for Les Gones all season long, but with Sage instilling a newfound sense of defensive discipline into his crop, a solitary strike may be enough for the visitors to continue their climb away from the drop zone, leapfrogging their out-of-sorts hosts in the process. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 49.42%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 25.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.

Result
Montpellier HSC	Draw	Lyon
25.5% ( 0.09)	25.07%	49.42% ( -0.09)

Both teams to score 52.09% (

0.08)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

49.4% (

0.06)

50.6% (

-0.06)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

27.48% (

0.05)

72.51% (

-0.06)

Montpellier HSC Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.51% (

0.11)

34.49% (

-0.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.8% (

0.12)

71.2% (

-0.12)

Lyon Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

79.51% (

-0.01)

20.49% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

47.02% (

-0.02)

52.97% (

0.02)

Score Analysis

Montpellier HSC 25.5%

Lyon 49.42%

Draw 25.07%

Montpellier HSC	Draw	Lyon
1-0 @ 7.52% ( 0) 2-1 @ 6.35% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 4% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 2.25% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.79% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 1.42% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.17% Total : 25.5%	1-1 @ 11.92% 0-0 @ 7.07% ( -0.02) 2-2 @ 5.03% ( 0.01) 3-3 @ 0.94% ( 0) Other @ 0.11% Total : 25.07%	0-1 @ 11.2% ( -0.03) 1-2 @ 9.45% ( -0) 0-2 @ 8.88% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 5% ( -0) 0-3 @ 4.69% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.66% ( 0.01) 1-4 @ 1.98% ( -0) 0-4 @ 1.86% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 1.05% ( 0) Other @ 2.65% Total : 49.42%