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Ligue 1
Montpellier
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 21
Feb 11, 2024 at 4.05pm UK
Stade de la Mosson
Lyon

Montpellier
1 - 2
Lyon

Nordin (23')
Ferri (90')
FT(HT: 1-0)
Lacazette (74'), Caqueret (82')
Tagliafico (28'), Orban (90')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Ligue 1 clash between Montpellier HSC and Lyon, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Montpellier HSC

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Montpellier 1-4 Nice
Wednesday, February 7 at 7.30pm in Coupe de France

Lyon

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Lyon 2-1 Lille
Wednesday, February 7 at 5.30pm in Coupe de France

We said: Montpellier HSC 0-1 Lyon

 Assuming the role of stalemate specialists at home, Montpellier are seldom outfought on their own patch - barring their midweek cup humiliation - and a Lyon side also nursing jellied legs will not have it all their own way at the Stade de la Mosson. Making the net ripple on the road has been an issue for Les Gones all season long, but with Sage instilling a newfound sense of defensive discipline into his crop, a solitary strike may be enough for the visitors to continue their climb away from the drop zone, leapfrogging their out-of-sorts hosts in the process. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 49.42%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 25.5% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.45%) and 0-2 (8.88%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.

Result
Montpellier HSCDrawLyon
25.5% (0.091999999999999 0.09) 25.07%49.42% (-0.092000000000006 -0.09)
Both teams to score 52.09% (0.080000000000005 0.08)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
49.4% (0.061999999999998 0.06)50.6% (-0.063000000000002 -0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
27.48% (0.054000000000002 0.05)72.51% (-0.055999999999997 -0.06)
Montpellier HSC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.51% (0.11 0.11)34.49% (-0.11 -0.11)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.8% (0.117 0.12)71.2% (-0.119 -0.12)
Lyon Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
79.51% (-0.013999999999996 -0.01)20.49% (0.013000000000002 0.01)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
47.02% (-0.024000000000001 -0.02)52.97% (0.023999999999994 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Montpellier HSC 25.5%
    Lyon 49.42%
    Draw 25.07%
Montpellier HSCDrawLyon
1-0 @ 7.52% (0.0039999999999996 0)
2-1 @ 6.35% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 4% (0.013999999999999 0.01)
3-1 @ 2.25% (0.014 0.01)
3-2 @ 1.79% (0.011 0.01)
3-0 @ 1.42% (0.0090000000000001 0.01)
Other @ 2.17%
Total : 25.5%
1-1 @ 11.92%
0-0 @ 7.07% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-2 @ 5.03% (0.013 0.01)
3-3 @ 0.94% (0.004 0)
Other @ 0.11%
Total : 25.07%
0-1 @ 11.2% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
1-2 @ 9.45% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-2 @ 8.88% (-0.030000000000001 -0.03)
1-3 @ 5% (-0.0039999999999996 -0)
0-3 @ 4.69% (-0.018 -0.02)
2-3 @ 2.66% (0.0059999999999998 0.01)
1-4 @ 1.98% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
0-4 @ 1.86% (-0.008 -0.01)
2-4 @ 1.05% (0.002 0)
Other @ 2.65%
Total : 49.42%

How you voted: Montpellier vs Lyon

Montpellier HSC
13.6%
Draw
40.7%
Lyon
45.8%
59
Head to Head
Aug 19, 2023 6pm
Gameweek 2
Lyon
1-4
Montpellier
Lacazette (69')
Diomande (13'), Lepenant (29'), Barcola (45+4'), Tagliafico (83')
Lacazette (80')
Nordin (20'), Al Tamari (39', 66'), Adams (89')
Kouyate (51')
> Preview
May 7, 2023 4.05pm
Gameweek 34
Lyon
5-4
Montpellier
Lacazette (31', 59', 82', 90+10' pen.), Lovren (70')
Wahi (40', 41', 53', 55')
> Preview
Oct 22, 2022 4pm
Gameweek 12
Montpellier
1-2
Lyon
Wahi (70')
Aouar (33'), Lacazette (90')
> Preview
Apr 23, 2022 4pm
Gameweek 34
Lyon
5-2
Montpellier
Dembele (26'), Mendes (43'), Aouar (63', 90+1'), Toko Ekambi (68')
Boateng (75'), Gusto (89')
Wahi (45+1'), Savanier (45+3' pen.)
Oyongo (28'), Cozza (42')
> Preview
Nov 28, 2021 4pm
Gameweek 15
Montpellier
0-1
Lyon

Ferri (68')
Paqueta (17')
Slimani (29'), Caqueret (40'), Boateng (45'), Palmieri (67')
> Preview
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG15114040122837
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1593324121230
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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