We said: Lyon 2-1 Montpellier HSC
While Lyon have been far from their best for large sections of the season, and come in with a badly hit squad, they still boast plenty of quality and meet an out-of-sorts Montpellier side.
We ultimately see Bosz's men returning to winning ways with home advantage and the need for a near-perfect end to the season to stand any chance of a high finish.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 76.19%. A draw had a probability of 14.6% and a win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 9.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 2-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.68%) and 2-1 (8.98%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.8%), while for a Montpellier HSC win it was 1-2 (2.78%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lyon would win this match.