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Ligue 1
Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 10
Oct 8, 2022 at 4pm UK
Stade Velodrome
AC Ajaccio

Marseille
1 - 2
Ajaccio

Payet (15' pen.)
FT(HT: 1-1)
Moussiti-Oko (25'), Balerdi (47' og.)
Kone (11'), Gonzalez (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Ajaccio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 4-1 Sporting Lisbon
Tuesday, October 4 at 6pm in Champions League

Ajaccio

All competitions
Last Game: Ajaccio 1-3 Clermont
Sunday, October 2 at 2pm in Ligue 1

We said: Marseille 2-0 Ajaccio

 Marseille have the joint-best defensive unit in Ligue 1, conceding just five goals, which is as many as Ajaccio have scored this season, so we do not anticipate the home team will be threatened much in this outing. In the attack, Les Olympiens have many quality forwards who can do some damage - their last eight goals scored in all competitions have come from different individuals - and AJA do not have anywhere near that kind of scoring depth on their roster. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 62.31%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Ajaccio had a probability of 15.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.61%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for an Ajaccio win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.

Result
MarseilleDrawAjaccio
62.31% (0.544 0.54) 22.52% (-0.202 -0.2) 15.16% (-0.342 -0.34)
Both teams to score 44.12% (-0.168 -0.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.9% (0.186 0.19)53.1% (-0.187 -0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.32% (0.159 0.16)74.68% (-0.16 -0.16)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.43% (0.253 0.25)16.56% (-0.253 -0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.65% (0.452 0.45)46.34% (-0.453 -0.45)
Ajaccio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.87% (-0.363 -0.36)47.12% (0.361 0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.42% (-0.274 -0.27)82.58% (0.274 0.27)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 62.3%
    Ajaccio 15.16%
    Draw 22.51%
MarseilleDrawAjaccio
1-0 @ 14.03% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 12.61% (0.12 0.12)
2-1 @ 9.49% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 7.56% (0.134 0.13)
3-1 @ 5.69% (0.044 0.04)
4-0 @ 3.4% (0.088 0.09)
4-1 @ 2.56% (0.041 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.14% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.22% (0.042 0.04)
4-2 @ 0.96% (0.006 0.01)
5-1 @ 0.92% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 1.72%
Total : 62.3%
1-1 @ 10.55% (-0.1 -0.1)
0-0 @ 7.81% (-0.058000000000001 -0.06)
2-2 @ 3.57% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 22.51%
0-1 @ 5.87% (-0.104 -0.1)
1-2 @ 3.97% (-0.078 -0.08)
0-2 @ 2.21% (-0.063 -0.06)
1-3 @ 1% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 2.11%
Total : 15.16%

How you voted: Marseille vs Ajaccio

Marseille
95.0%
Draw
3.8%
Ajaccio
1.3%
80
Head to Head
Apr 4, 2014 7.30pm
Marseille
3-1
Ajaccio
Ayew (4', 60', 77')
Morel (90')
Tallo (62')
> Match Report
Nov 22, 2013 7.30pm
Ajaccio
1-3
Marseille
Perozo (31')
Cavalli (18'), Pierazzi (49'), Perozo (53'), Demba Camara (84')
Payet (27'), Gignac (39'), Thauvin (58')
Thauvin (18')
> Match Report
Mar 15, 2013 7.30pm
Marseille
0-0
Ajaccio

Sammaritano (63')
> Match Report
Nov 4, 2012 1pm
Ajaccio
0-2
Marseille
> Match Report
Mar 9, 2012 7pm
Ajaccio
1-0
Marseille
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG18144048163246
2Marseille18114340211937
3Lille1888228171132
4MonacoMonaco189452920931
5Nice1886436251130
6Lyon188552922729
7Lens187652218427
8Toulouse187471919025
9Brest188192831-325
10StrasbourgStrasbourg186663130124
11Auxerre186482428-422
12Angers186482127-622
13Reims185672426-221
14Rennes1852112427-317
15NantesNantes183872128-717
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1852111738-2117
17Le HavreLe Havre1841131437-2313
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1833121843-2512
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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