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Ligue 1
Marseille
Ligue 1 | Gameweek 10
Oct 8, 2022 at 4pm UK
Stade Velodrome
AC Ajaccio

Marseille
1 - 2
Ajaccio

Payet (15' pen.)
FT(HT: 1-1)
Moussiti-Oko (25'), Balerdi (47' og.)
Kone (11'), Gonzalez (86')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Ligue 1 clash between Marseille and Ajaccio, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Marseille

All competitions
Ligue 1
Last Game: Marseille 4-1 Sporting Lisbon
Tuesday, October 4 at 6pm in Champions League

Ajaccio

All competitions
Last Game: Ajaccio 1-3 Clermont
Sunday, October 2 at 2pm in Ligue 1

We said: Marseille 2-0 Ajaccio

 Marseille have the joint-best defensive unit in Ligue 1, conceding just five goals, which is as many as Ajaccio have scored this season, so we do not anticipate the home team will be threatened much in this outing. In the attack, Les Olympiens have many quality forwards who can do some damage - their last eight goals scored in all competitions have come from different individuals - and AJA do not have anywhere near that kind of scoring depth on their roster. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marseille win with a probability of 62.31%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Ajaccio had a probability of 15.16%.

The most likely scoreline for a Marseille win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.61%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for an Ajaccio win it was 0-1 (5.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 4% likelihood.

Result
MarseilleDrawAjaccio
62.31% (0.544 0.54) 22.52% (-0.202 -0.2) 15.16% (-0.342 -0.34)
Both teams to score 44.12% (-0.168 -0.17)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
46.9% (0.186 0.19)53.1% (-0.187 -0.19)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
25.32% (0.159 0.16)74.68% (-0.16 -0.16)
Marseille Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
83.43% (0.253 0.25)16.56% (-0.253 -0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
53.65% (0.452 0.45)46.34% (-0.453 -0.45)
Ajaccio Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
52.87% (-0.363 -0.36)47.12% (0.361 0.36)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
17.42% (-0.274 -0.27)82.58% (0.274 0.27)
Score Analysis
    Marseille 62.3%
    Ajaccio 15.16%
    Draw 22.51%
MarseilleDrawAjaccio
1-0 @ 14.03% (0.02 0.02)
2-0 @ 12.61% (0.12 0.12)
2-1 @ 9.49% (-0.0069999999999997 -0.01)
3-0 @ 7.56% (0.134 0.13)
3-1 @ 5.69% (0.044 0.04)
4-0 @ 3.4% (0.088 0.09)
4-1 @ 2.56% (0.041 0.04)
3-2 @ 2.14% (-0.0059999999999998 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.22% (0.042 0.04)
4-2 @ 0.96% (0.006 0.01)
5-1 @ 0.92% (0.022 0.02)
Other @ 1.72%
Total : 62.3%
1-1 @ 10.55% (-0.1 -0.1)
0-0 @ 7.81% (-0.058000000000001 -0.06)
2-2 @ 3.57% (-0.039 -0.04)
Other @ 0.58%
Total : 22.51%
0-1 @ 5.87% (-0.104 -0.1)
1-2 @ 3.97% (-0.078 -0.08)
0-2 @ 2.21% (-0.063 -0.06)
1-3 @ 1% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 2.11%
Total : 15.16%

How you voted: Marseille vs Ajaccio

Marseille
95.0%
Draw
3.8%
Ajaccio
1.3%
80
Head to Head
Apr 4, 2014 7.30pm
Marseille
3-1
Ajaccio
Ayew (4', 60', 77')
Morel (90')
Tallo (62')
> Match Report
Nov 22, 2013 7.30pm
Ajaccio
1-3
Marseille
Perozo (31')
Cavalli (18'), Pierazzi (49'), Perozo (53'), Demba Camara (84')
Payet (27'), Gignac (39'), Thauvin (58')
Thauvin (18')
> Match Report
Mar 15, 2013 7.30pm
Marseille
0-0
Ajaccio

Sammaritano (63')
> Match Report
Nov 4, 2012 1pm
Ajaccio
0-2
Marseille
> Match Report
Mar 9, 2012 7pm
Ajaccio
1-0
Marseille
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
> View full version> Yesterday's results
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Paris Saint-GermainPSG16124044143040
2Marseille1593332181430
3MonacoMonaco1693426161030
4Lille1576225151027
5Lyon157442720725
6Nice156632819924
7Lens156631914524
8Auxerre156362323021
9Toulouse156361717021
10Reims155552018220
11Brest156182427-319
12Rennes155282020017
13StrasbourgStrasbourg154562527-217
14NantesNantes153571724-714
15Angers153481426-1213
16Saint-EtienneSt Etienne1541101234-2213
17Le HavreLe Havre1540111129-1812
18Montpellier HSCMontpellier1523101538-239
> Ligue 1 Full Table


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