Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montpellier HSC win with a probability of 47.23%. A win for Lorient had a probability of 27.58% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montpellier HSC win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.33%) and 2-0 (8.26%). The likeliest Lorient win was 0-1 (7.68%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 12% likelihood.