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Brighton logo
Premier League | Gameweek 34
Jul 8, 2020 at 8.15pm UK
The American Express Community Stadium
Liverpool logo

Brighton
1 - 3
Liverpool

Trossard (45')
Lamptey (85')
FT(HT: 1-2)
Salah (6', 76'), Henderson (8')
Williams (41'), Mane (62'), Fabinho (78'), Gomez (89')

Preview: Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Liverpool - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday night's Premier League clash between Brighton & Hove Albion and champions Liverpool, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Liverpool's quest for more Premier League history takes them to the Amex Stadium on Wednesday night as they face Brighton & Hove Albion.

The Reds have already been crowned champions in record time, but now have their sights set on accumulating the most points, wins and biggest winning margin in English top-flight history.


Match preview

Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp pictured on July 2, 2020© Reuters

Jurgen Klopp has insisted that records mean little to him and his players, but they will no doubt be aware of what is needed from their final five games to secure their place as the best team in English top-flight history - statistically speaking, at least.

A plethora of records have already fallen in this remarkable campaign, most recently winning the title with an unprecedented seven games to spare, and now they need four more wins to secure both the most points and most victories in a single season.

The record title-winning margin is still very much on, particularly after Manchester City's defeat at Southampton on Sunday, with Liverpool restoring the 23-point lead which was cut when they were well beaten by the former champions on Thursday.

The Reds did so despite not being at their best against Aston Villa, but that has been the story of much of their season - picking up victories without blowing the opposition away.

Goals from Sadio Mane and Curtis Jones broke down the Villa resistance to ensure that Liverpool are still perfect at Anfield this term, although it has been a much different story away from home recently.

Curtis Jones celebrates with Virgil Van Dijk after Liverpool defeat Aston Villa on July 5, 2020© Reuters

Klopp's side have lost four and won none of their last five away games across all competitions, and even more remarkably have failed to even score in any of those five games - their worst such streak since a run of eight under Graeme Souness in 1992.

You have to go back to February 15 for their last win and goal on the road - Mane against Norwich City - while eight of the 10 points they have dropped all season have come in their last three Premier League away games.

Even with that dramatic drop-off in form, Liverpool have still amassed 10 more points away from home than any other team this season, and they will be confident of ending that drought against a Brighton side that has distanced themselves from relegation trouble since the restart.

The Seagulls cannot quite count themselves as completely safe from the drop, but it would take a unlikely turnaround in form for those below to overtake them even if Brighton lose all of their remaining games.

Graham Potter's side have a nine-point cushion to the relegation zone with only 15 points left to play for, while West Ham United and Watford are much more exposed to being caught by those in the bottom three.

Brighton & Hove Albion's Leandro Trossard celebrates scoring against Norwich on July 4, 2020© Reuters

The pressure has been significantly eased courtesy of their seven-point return from a possible 12 since lockdown, then, most recently nudging Norwich City closer to relegation with a 1-0 triumph at Carrow Road on Saturday.

Potter will be relieved that there is not much riding on the results in their next two games with Liverpool and Manchester City both visiting in the space of three days this week.

Indeed, it is a particularly tough run of home games for the Seagulls since returning for lockdown, with that double-header following matches against Arsenal and Manchester United in their last two outings at the Amex Stadium.

Victory over Arsenal gave them the boost to move clear of danger, but they were beaten 3-0 by Manchester United last Tuesday for their heaviest home defeat of the season, leaving them with only one win from seven at the Amex this calendar year.

Supporters may be fearing more of the same considering their next two opponents, although should that occur it is not likely to affect their Premier League status having already laid firm foundations for survival.

Brighton's record against Liverpool does not exactly inspire confidence either; Liverpool have won the last eight editions of this fixture - including every Premier League meeting - are unbeaten in league games since 1982 and have not lost away to the Seagulls since 1961, when both teams were in Division Two.

Brighton Premier League form: LDWDLW

Liverpool Premier League form: LWDWLW
Liverpool form (all competitions): WLDWLW


Team News

Liverpool's Andrew Robertson pictured in Match 2020© Reuters

Liverpool full-back Andrew Robertson suffered a knock to his calf during the win over Aston Villa but is expected to shake it off in time to feature in this game.

James Milner could also be in contention as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury, although Klopp has insisted that he will take no unnecessary risks over the midfielder's fitness.

Dejan Lovren has missed the past two games with a knock and is again doubtful for this one, while Joel Matip has been ruled out for the remainder of the season.

The likes of Roberto Firmino, Jordan Henderson and Georginio Wijnaldum all sat out last time but could come back in for this one, although there could be rotation elsewhere given the quick turnaround in fixtures elsewhere.

Klopp has vowed not to weaken his teams too much, though, and with Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah both still in Golden Boot contention they will be desperate to play once again.

Brighton are still without Jose Izquierdo, while Steven Alzate will be assessed in the buildup to this one but remains a major doubt after "struggling slightly in training" on Monday.

Shane Duffy and Dale Stephens were among the players to start on the bench at the weekend and so they will be pushing for a recall here.

Brighton possible starting lineup:
Ryan; Lamptey, Duffy, Dunk, Burn; Mooy, Propper, Bissouma, Trossard; Maupay, Connolly

Liverpool possible starting lineup:
Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson; Henderson, Fabinho, Wijnaldum; Salah, Firmino, Mane


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Brighton 0-2 Liverpool

Brighton's win over Norwich last time out was a huge result for them, effectively lifting them to within touching distance of Premier League safety, and so they could subconsciously take their foot off the pedal for this one.

Liverpool, meanwhile, were far from their best against Aston Villa but still got the job done, and it could be a similar story here. We are backing the visitors to end their away drought and edge closer to those impressive records.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Liverpool win with a probability of 52.88%. A draw had a probability of 23.9% and a win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 23.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Liverpool win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.35%), while for a Brighton & Hove Albion win it was 1-0 (6.63%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Liverpool would win this match.


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Liverpool's James Milner celebrates scoring their second goal with Jordan Henderson and Divock Origi on October 5, 2019
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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool119112161528
2Manchester CityMan City127232217523
3Chelsea126422314922
4Arsenal126422112922
5Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton126422116522
6Tottenham HotspurSpurs1261527131419
7Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest125431513219
8Aston Villa125431919019
9Newcastle UnitedNewcastle115331311218
10Fulham125341717018
11Brentford125252222017
12Manchester UnitedMan Utd114341212015
13Bournemouth124351617-115
14West Ham UnitedWest Ham113351319-612
15Everton122551017-711
16Leicester CityLeicester122461523-810
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves122372028-89
18Crystal Palace121561017-78
19Ipswich TownIpswich111551222-108
20Southampton11119721-144


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