Mauritania and Tunisia go head to head for the second straight World Cup 2022 qualifying game this Sunday when they square off at the Stade Olympique.
The hosts will be looking to exact revenge on the visitors who cruised to a comfortable 3-0 victory in the reverse fixture on Thursday.
Match preview
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Mauritania have endured an underwhelming start to their quest for a first-ever World Cup appearance and currently find themselves rooted to the bottom of Group B.
After booking their place in the 2021 Arab Cup courtesy of a 2-0 victory over Yemen, Corentin Martins's men suffered a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Zambia in their group opener on September 3.
That was followed by a somewhat disappointing 1-0 loss to Equatorial Guinea four days later, when Iban Salvador scored the winner from the penalty spot shortly before the hour mark.
Mauritania failed to end their dry spell last time out as group favourites Tunisia eased past them courtesy of a 3-0 victory at the Stade Olympique de Rades last Thursday.
The Eagles of Carthage went into half time with a two-goal lead through Ellyes Skhiri and Wahbi Khazri before Seifeddine Jaziri completed the rout in the 86th minute.
While that was a third defeat on the trot for the Al-Murabitun, it was Tunisia's fourth consecutive win since a 2-0 loss to Algeria when they faced off in a friendly tie back in June.
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Mondher Kebaier's men, in stark contrast, have enjoyed a stellar run in their quest for a sixth World Cup appearance as they currently lead the way in Group B with nine points from a possible nine.
That is owing to the impressive work done at both ends of the pitch as they have netted the second-most goals with eight and are yet to concede at the opposite end of the pitch.
The North African side head into Sunday's game in a run of seven wins from their most recent eight games in all competitions, while they are unbeaten in all but one one of their last 16 outings since 2019.
Tunisia, who became the first African side to taste victory in a World Cup game courtesy of a 2-0 win over Mexico back in 1978, will fancy their chances of completing a group double over an out-of-sorts Mauritania side who have shipped six goals in their opening three games.
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Team News
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Following a poor start to the qualifiers, we expect Martins to tinker with his starting XI this weekend as they go all out for their first win of the campaign.
That means we could see Babacar Diop and Mouhamed Soueid come into the starting side at the expense of Namori Diaw and Sidi Yacoub respectively.
As for Tunisia, considering their fine run of results and defensive sturdiness in the opening three games, Kebaier could stick with a similar side from last time out.
Should that be the case, the North Africans will line up in a 4-3-3 formation, with the trio of Aissa Laidouni, Ellyes Skhiri and Naim Sliti handling the business in the centre of the park.
Wahbi Khazri is currently second in the nation's all-time scoring list with 21 goals in 61 caps and we expect the Saint-Etienne forward to spearhead the attack on Sunday.
Mauritania possible starting lineup:
Diop; Abeid, Thiam, N'Diaye, Diaw; Dellahi, Mahmoud, Soueid; Diakite, Kamara, Ba
Tunisia possible starting lineup:
Ben Mustapha; Kechrida, Bronn, Meriah, Maaloul; Laidouni, Skhiri, Sliti; Slimane, Khazri, Jaziri
We say: Mauritania 0-3 Tunisia
While Mauritania will look to arrest their slump in form and pick up their first points in the qualifiers, they face a free-scoring Tunisia side who are yet to concede a goal in the qualifiers.
The Eagles of Carthage cruised to a comfortable victory when the sides met on Thursday and we anticipate a repeat of the same this weekend given the gulf in quality between the two sides.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tunisia win with a probability of 40.84%. A win for Mauritania had a probability of 31.22% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tunisia win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.3%) and 0-2 (7.75%). The likeliest Mauritania win was 1-0 (10.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood.
