Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 39.17%. A win for Montreal Impact had a probability of 35.89% and a draw had a probability of 24.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.37%) and 0-2 (6.15%). The likeliest Montreal Impact win was 2-1 (8.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Toronto would win this match.