Major League Soccer

Oct 5, 2023 at 12.30am UK

Subaru Park

Philadelphia
3 - 2
Atlanta

Gazdag (39'), Uhre (41'), Carranza (45+3')
Elliott (34'), Sullivan (66'), Andres Martinez (75'), Harriel (81')

FT(HT: 3-0)

Almada (56' pen.), Mosquera (77')
Thiare (75')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Major League Soccer clash between Philadelphia Union and Atlanta United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Philadelphia Union

All competitions

Last Game: Columbus Crew 1-1 Philadelphia
Sunday, October 1 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

Atlanta United

All competitions

Last Game: Atlanta 4-1 Montreal
Sunday, September 24 at 12.30am in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Philadelphia Union 1-1 Atlanta United

Philadelphia Union have drawn their last five MLS games, and the spoils have been shared in each of Atlanta United's last two away matches. Given that the two sides are separated by just two points in the table, they are clearly evenly-matched, and we expect a draw this Wednesday.

How to watch

You can watch Philadelphia Union vs. Atlanta United and every MLS match this season live on Apple TV. Click here for more details on how to subscribe. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 55.96%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Atlanta United had a probability of 21.49%.

The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.89%) and 2-0 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.61%), while for an Atlanta United win it was 0-1 (5.7%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.

Result
Philadelphia Union	Draw	Atlanta United
55.96% ( 0.02)	22.55% ( -0.01)	21.49% ( -0.02)

Both teams to score 55.45% (

0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

56.13% (

0.02)

43.87% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

33.74% (

0.02)

66.26% (

-0.01)

Philadelphia Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

84.48% (

0.02)

15.52% (

-0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

55.57% (

0.03)

44.43% (

-0.02)

Atlanta United Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.64% (

-0)

34.36% (

0.01)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.93% (

-0.01)

71.07% (

0.01)

Score Analysis

Philadelphia Union 55.96%

Atlanta United 21.49%

Draw 22.55%

Philadelphia Union	Draw	Atlanta United
1-0 @ 9.94% ( -0) 2-1 @ 9.89% ( 0) 2-0 @ 9.26% ( 0) 3-1 @ 6.14% ( 0) 3-0 @ 5.75% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.28% ( 0) 4-1 @ 2.86% ( 0) 4-0 @ 2.68% ( 0) 4-2 @ 1.53% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.07% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1% ( 0) Other @ 2.58% Total : 55.96%	1-1 @ 10.61% 0-0 @ 5.33% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.28% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 0.16% Total : 22.55%	0-1 @ 5.7% ( -0) 1-2 @ 5.67% ( -0) 0-2 @ 3.04% ( -0) 1-3 @ 2.02% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.88% 0-3 @ 1.08% ( -0) Other @ 2.11% Total : 21.49%