Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 58.29%. A draw had a probability of 22.1% and a win for Atlanta United had a probability of 19.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.93%) and 2-0 (9.91%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.47%), while for an Atlanta United win it was 0-1 (5.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.