We said: Portland Timbers 2-1 Austin FC
Given their opening victory, Austin FC will head into this weekend's affair with the wind in their sails, but the Portland Timbers will back themselves to make home advantage count.
Albeit by only a narrow margin, we are backing the hosts to come away with maximum points when all is said and done.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 50.74%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 25.6% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 1-2 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.