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Portland Timbers
Major League Soccer
Mar 2, 2025 at 3.30am UK
Providence Park
Austin FC

Portland
1 - 0
Austin

Costa (89')
McGraw (39'), Antony (53'), Fory (55'), Ortiz (64'), Paredes (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Pereira (44')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Major League Soccer clash between Portland Timbers and Austin FC, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Portland 1-4 Vancouver
Sunday, February 23 at 9pm in Major League Soccer
Last Game: Austin 1-0 Kansas
Sunday, February 23 at 1.30am in Major League Soccer

We said: Portland Timbers 2-1 Austin FC

Given their opening victory, Austin FC will head into this weekend's affair with the wind in their sails, but the Portland Timbers will back themselves to make home advantage count. Albeit by only a narrow margin, we are backing the hosts to come away with maximum points when all is said and done. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portland Timbers win with a probability of 50.74%. A win for Austin FC had a probability of 25.6% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Portland Timbers win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Austin FC win was 1-2 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portland Timbers would win this match.

Result
Portland TimbersDrawAustin FC
50.74% (-1.177 -1.18) 23.66% (0.721 0.72) 25.6% (0.455 0.46)
Both teams to score 56.75% (-1.994 -1.99)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
55.51% (-2.855 -2.86)44.49% (2.851 2.85)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
33.14% (-2.823 -2.82)66.86% (2.821 2.82)
Portland Timbers Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
82.4% (-1.482 -1.48)17.59% (1.479 1.48)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
51.83% (-2.64 -2.64)48.17% (2.637 2.64)
Austin FC Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
68.87% (-1.163 -1.16)31.13% (1.16 1.16)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
32.54% (-1.378 -1.38)67.46% (1.375 1.38)
Score Analysis
    Portland Timbers 50.74%
    Austin FC 25.6%
    Draw 23.65%
Portland TimbersDrawAustin FC
2-1 @ 9.65% (-0.047000000000001 -0.05)
1-0 @ 9.52% (0.702 0.7)
2-0 @ 8.27% (0.222 0.22)
3-1 @ 5.59% (-0.311 -0.31)
3-0 @ 4.79% (-0.107 -0.11)
3-2 @ 3.26% (-0.294 -0.29)
4-1 @ 2.43% (-0.265 -0.27)
4-0 @ 2.08% (-0.154 -0.15)
4-2 @ 1.42% (-0.205 -0.21)
Other @ 3.74%
Total : 50.74%
1-1 @ 11.1% (0.48 0.48)
2-2 @ 5.63% (-0.212 -0.21)
0-0 @ 5.48% (0.648 0.65)
3-3 @ 1.27% (-0.16 -0.16)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 23.65%
1-2 @ 6.48% (0.08 0.08)
0-1 @ 6.39% (0.573 0.57)
0-2 @ 3.73% (0.223 0.22)
1-3 @ 2.52% (-0.05 -0.05)
2-3 @ 2.19% (-0.156 -0.16)
0-3 @ 1.45% (0.043 0.04)
Other @ 2.84%
Total : 25.6%

How you voted: Portland vs Austin

Portland Timbers
83.3%
Draw
16.7%
Austin FC
0.0%
6
Head to Head
Oct 3, 2024 3.30am
Portland
0-1
Austin
Pereira (42')
Pereira (22'), Obrian (40'), Stuver (90+7')
May 30, 2024 1.30am
Austin
0-2
Portland

Zardes (47'), Jimenez (50'), Hines-Ike (64'), Fodrey (74'), Pereira (77')
Evander (45+3'), Rodriguez (66' pen.)
Paredes (90+2')
Sep 18, 2023 1.30am
Austin
1-2
Portland
Driussi (75')
Wolff (57'), Cascante (61')
Mora (39'), Evander (65')
Antony (90+7')
May 7, 2023 3.30am
Sep 1, 2022 3.51am
rhs 2.0
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