Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 40.85%. A win for Toronto had a probability of 34.18% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.7%) and 0-2 (6.51%). The likeliest Toronto win was 2-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
Result | ||
Toronto | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
34.18% ( 0.39) | 24.97% ( 0.07) | 40.85% ( -0.46) |
Both teams to score 57.46% ( -0.15) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
54.12% ( -0.24) | 45.88% ( 0.23) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
31.81% ( -0.23) | 68.19% ( 0.23) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.03% ( 0.12) | 25.97% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.02% ( 0.16) | 60.98% ( -0.16) |
FC Cincinnati Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
77.61% ( -0.33) | 22.39% ( 0.33) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
44.11% ( -0.49) | 55.89% ( 0.49) |
Score Analysis |
Toronto | Draw | FC Cincinnati |
2-1 @ 7.91% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.11) 2-0 @ 5.28% ( 0.09) 3-1 @ 3.56% ( 0.04) 3-2 @ 2.66% ( 0) 3-0 @ 2.38% ( 0.05) 4-1 @ 1.2% ( 0.02) Other @ 3.36% Total : 34.18% | 1-1 @ 11.73% ( 0.05) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 5.81% ( 0.06) 3-3 @ 1.33% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.97% | 1-2 @ 8.78% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 8.7% ( 0) 0-2 @ 6.51% ( -0.06) 1-3 @ 4.38% ( -0.07) 0-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.06) 2-3 @ 2.95% ( -0.04) 1-4 @ 1.64% ( -0.04) 0-4 @ 1.22% ( -0.04) 2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.32% Total : 40.85% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 44 | 24 | 64 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 58 | 31 | 27 | 56 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 56 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 30 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 44 |
5 | Orlando City | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 43 |
6 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 33 | 3 | 41 |
7 | New York City FCNY City | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 41 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 36 |
9 | Toronto | 31 | 11 | 3 | 17 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 36 |
10 | CF MontrealMontreal | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 34 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 33 |
12 | Nashville SCNashville | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 33 |
13 | DC United | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 33 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 29 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 29 | 8 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 60 | -28 | 28 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 46 | 17 | 58 |
2 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 60 | 45 | 15 | 51 |
3 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 58 | 50 | 8 | 50 |
4 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 49 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 48 |
6 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 47 |
7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 49 | 40 | 9 | 46 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 53 | 10 | 44 |
9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 50 | 48 | 2 | 42 |
10 | Dallas | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 49 | 0 | 37 |
11 | Austin FCAustin | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 35 |
12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 31 |
13 | St Louis City | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 43 | 57 | -14 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 30 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 18 |