Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Cincinnati win with a probability of 63.46%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Toronto had a probability of 15.21%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Cincinnati win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.93%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.13%), while for a Toronto win it was 0-1 (5.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that FC Cincinnati would win this match.
Result | ||
FC Cincinnati | Draw | Toronto |
63.46% ( -0.13) | 21.32% ( 0.04) | 15.21% ( 0.09) |
Both teams to score 47.7% ( 0.07) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
51.69% ( -0.01) | 48.3% ( 0.01) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
29.55% ( -0.01) | 70.45% ( 0.02) |
FC Cincinnati Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.43% ( -0.05) | 14.57% ( 0.05) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
57.36% ( -0.09) | 42.64% ( 0.09) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
55.84% ( 0.12) | 44.16% ( -0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
19.74% ( 0.1) | 80.25% ( -0.09) |
Score Analysis |
FC Cincinnati | Draw | Toronto |
1-0 @ 12.39% ( -0.01) 2-0 @ 11.93% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.76% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 7.66% ( -0.03) 3-1 @ 6.26% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 3.69% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 3.02% ( -0.01) 3-2 @ 2.56% ( 0) 5-0 @ 1.42% ( -0.01) 4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0) 5-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.37% Total : 63.45% | 1-1 @ 10.13% ( 0.03) 0-0 @ 6.44% ( 0) 2-2 @ 3.99% ( 0.02) Other @ 0.77% Total : 21.32% | 0-1 @ 5.26% ( 0.02) 1-2 @ 4.14% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 2.15% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 1.13% ( 0.01) 2-3 @ 1.09% ( 0.01) Other @ 1.45% Total : 15.21% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 68 | 44 | 24 | 64 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 29 | 16 | 8 | 5 | 58 | 31 | 27 | 56 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 30 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 52 | 39 | 13 | 56 |
4 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 30 | 10 | 14 | 6 | 47 | 39 | 8 | 44 |
5 | Orlando City | 30 | 12 | 7 | 11 | 50 | 45 | 5 | 43 |
6 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 36 | 33 | 3 | 41 |
7 | New York City FCNY City | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 43 | 43 | 0 | 41 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 57 | 47 | 10 | 36 |
9 | Toronto | 31 | 11 | 3 | 17 | 38 | 55 | -17 | 36 |
10 | CF MontrealMontreal | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 41 | 61 | -20 | 34 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 40 | 44 | -4 | 33 |
12 | Nashville SCNashville | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 31 | 46 | -15 | 33 |
13 | DC United | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 33 |
14 | Chicago Fire | 31 | 7 | 8 | 16 | 36 | 54 | -18 | 29 |
15 | New England RevolutionNew England | 29 | 8 | 4 | 17 | 32 | 60 | -28 | 28 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 46 | 17 | 58 |
2 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | 60 | 45 | 15 | 51 |
3 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 30 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 58 | 50 | 8 | 50 |
4 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 29 | 14 | 7 | 8 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 49 |
5 | Houston DynamoHouston | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | 43 | 33 | 10 | 48 |
6 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 34 | 11 | 47 |
7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 29 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 49 | 40 | 9 | 46 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 30 | 12 | 8 | 10 | 63 | 53 | 10 | 44 |
9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 30 | 12 | 6 | 12 | 50 | 48 | 2 | 42 |
10 | Dallas | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 49 | 49 | 0 | 37 |
11 | Austin FCAustin | 30 | 9 | 8 | 13 | 32 | 42 | -10 | 35 |
12 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 31 | 8 | 7 | 16 | 49 | 58 | -9 | 31 |
13 | St Louis City | 30 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 43 | 57 | -14 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 30 | 5 | 3 | 22 | 37 | 69 | -32 | 18 |