Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Toronto win with a probability of 53.18%. A win for St Louis City had a probability of 23.98% and a draw had a probability of 22.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Toronto win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.15%) and 2-0 (8.41%). The likeliest St Louis City win was 1-2 (6.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.63%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.
Result | ||
Toronto | Draw | St Louis City |
53.18% ( -0.13) | 22.84% ( 0.06) | 23.98% ( 0.07) |
Both teams to score 57.77% ( -0.11) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
57.67% ( -0.19) | 42.33% ( 0.19) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
35.27% ( -0.19) | 64.73% ( 0.19) |
Toronto Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
84.08% ( -0.11) | 15.92% ( 0.11) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
54.83% ( -0.21) | 45.17% ( 0.21) |
St Louis City Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
68.71% ( -0.04) | 31.29% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
32.35% ( -0.05) | 67.65% ( 0.05) |
Score Analysis |
Toronto | Draw | St Louis City |
2-1 @ 9.77% ( -0) 1-0 @ 9.15% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 8.41% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 5.99% ( -0.03) 3-0 @ 5.15% ( -0.02) 3-2 @ 3.48% ( -0.02) 4-1 @ 2.75% ( -0.02) 4-0 @ 2.37% ( -0.02) 4-2 @ 1.6% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 1.01% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.51% Total : 53.18% | 1-1 @ 10.63% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 5.68% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 4.98% ( 0.04) 3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.2% Total : 22.83% | 1-2 @ 6.18% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 5.79% ( 0.04) 0-2 @ 3.36% ( 0.02) 1-3 @ 2.39% ( 0) 2-3 @ 2.2% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 1.3% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.76% Total : 23.98% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Inter MiamiInter Miami | 31 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 69 | 45 | 24 | 65 |
2 | Columbus Crew | 30 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 60 | 33 | 27 | 57 |
3 | FC CincinnatiCincinnati | 31 | 17 | 5 | 9 | 53 | 41 | 12 | 56 |
4 | Orlando City | 31 | 13 | 7 | 11 | 53 | 46 | 7 | 46 |
5 | New York City FCNY City | 31 | 12 | 8 | 11 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 44 |
6 | New York Red BullsNY Red Bulls | 31 | 10 | 14 | 7 | 48 | 44 | 4 | 44 |
7 | Charlotte FCCharlotte FC | 31 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 37 | 34 | 3 | 42 |
8 | Philadelphia UnionPhiladelphia | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 58 | 48 | 10 | 37 |
9 | CF MontrealMontreal | 31 | 9 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 61 | -17 | 37 |
10 | Toronto | 32 | 11 | 4 | 17 | 39 | 56 | -17 | 37 |
11 | Atlanta UnitedAtlanta | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 41 | 45 | -4 | 34 |
12 | DC United | 31 | 8 | 10 | 13 | 46 | 63 | -17 | 34 |
13 | Nashville SCNashville | 31 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 31 | 47 | -16 | 33 |
14 | New England RevolutionNew England | 30 | 9 | 4 | 17 | 33 | 60 | -27 | 31 |
15 | Chicago Fire | 32 | 7 | 9 | 16 | 37 | 55 | -18 | 30 |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Los Angeles GalaxyLA Galaxy | 31 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 63 | 46 | 17 | 58 |
2 | Real Salt LakeSalt Lake | 31 | 14 | 10 | 7 | 62 | 47 | 15 | 52 |
3 | Los Angeles FCLos Angeles | 30 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 54 | 41 | 13 | 52 |
4 | Seattle SoundersSeattle | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | 46 | 34 | 12 | 50 |
5 | Colorado RapidsColorado | 31 | 15 | 5 | 11 | 58 | 53 | 5 | 50 |
6 | Houston DynamoHouston | 31 | 13 | 9 | 9 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 48 |
7 | Vancouver WhitecapsVancouver | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | 50 | 41 | 9 | 47 |
8 | Portland TimbersPortland | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | 64 | 54 | 10 | 45 |
9 | Minnesota UnitedMinnesota Utd | 31 | 13 | 6 | 12 | 53 | 48 | 5 | 45 |
10 | Dallas | 31 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 50 | 52 | -2 | 37 |
11 | Austin FCAustin | 31 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 34 | 44 | -10 | 36 |
12 | St Louis City | 31 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 46 | 58 | -12 | 34 |
13 | Sporting Kansas CityKansas | 32 | 8 | 7 | 17 | 50 | 61 | -11 | 31 |
14 | San Jose EarthquakesEarthquakes | 31 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 37 | 72 | -35 | 18 |