Montpellier HSC welcome Lyon to Stade de la Mosson on Sunday afternoon for a Ligue 1 mid-table clash.
The two sides currently sit ninth and 10th in the table respectively and have near identical records, each with 19 points, 21 goals scored and 21 goals conceded.
Match preview
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After posting wins and clean sheets against Nantes and second-placed Nice, things finally appeared to be looking up for Olivier Dall'Oglio, who will have been hoping to see a more consistent Montpellier than during his first months in charge.
Their inconsistency struck again last weekend, however, as they fell to a 2-0 defeat away at Rennes, with first-half goals from Martin Terrier and Lovro Majer putting the hosts in control and their defence of that lead was then made far easier when Montpellier captain Teji Savanier was dismissed shortly before the break.
With there being such fine margins around mid-table, that saw La Paillade fall from sixth to ninth, and another loss this weekend could easily see them drop as low as 12th.
Dall'Oglio's side have fared far better at home than on their travels this season, though, which will give the manager hope that they can return to winning ways on Sunday.
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The only difference between the two sides in the table is that Lyon have played one fewer game than their upcoming opponents, as a results of last weekend's abandoned match with Marseille.
Dimitri Payet was once again hit by a bottle thrown from the stands just five minutes into the game, with the teams then sent to the dressing rooms by referee Ruddy Buquet.
Despite an announcement over the stadium tannoy that the game would restart, the Marseille players were unwilling to return and the game was eventually called off almost two hours after it was initially halted.
The incident has led to Lyon being ordered to play home games behind closed doors until at least December 8 when a ruling will be made, although that will obviously not come into play this weekend as they travel to Montpellier.
Whilst this will surely have been a trying week for Peter Bosz and his side, they were able to bounce back with a 3-1 win away at Brondby on Thursday in the Europa Conference League, and Bosz will be looking for a repeat of that performance which would move them towards Ligue 1's European spots.
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Team News
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Montpellier will be without their captain as Savanier serves his suspension for the aforementioned red card, with Florent Mollet expected to shift inside and fill the hole left in the middle of the park.
That will likely see Elye Wahi or Nicholas Gioacchini take his usual spot on the wing.
Whilst Dall'Oglio loses one player through suspension he gets another back, with Jordan Serri having served his ban and is likely to come straight back into a role in defensive midfield.
Defender Sinaly Diomande is expected to miss up to a month out with a badly-sprained ankle, with Malo Gusto, Jerome Boateng, Jason Denayer and Emerson set to line up in a back four.
Lucas Paqueta, Maxence Caqueret, Bruno Guimaraes and Karl Toko Ekambi all made appearances from the bench in midweek and should start here.
Montpellier HSC possible starting lineup:
Omlin; Sambia, Esteve, Sakho, Cozza; Ferri, Chotard; Wahi, Mollet, Mavididi; Germain
Lyon possible starting lineup:
Lopes; Gusto, Boateng, Denayer, Emerson; Guimaraes, Caqueret; Ekambi, Paqeuta, Aouar, Dembele
We say: Montpellier HSC 0-1 Lyon
Montpellier beat Lyon twice last season, but look a different prospect with some important absentees - now including their captain. The visitors will have some fresh legs after rotating during the week and we are backing them to secure a narrow away victory.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lyon win with a probability of 44.22%. A win for Montpellier HSC had a probability of 32.7% and a draw had a probability of 23.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lyon win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.92%) and 0-2 (6.06%). The likeliest Montpellier HSC win was 2-1 (7.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.23%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-1 win for Lyon in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Lyon.
