After strolling to 3-0 wins in the semi-finals, Serie A champions Napoli and Coppa Italia holders Inter Milan will battle it out for the Supercoppa Italiana on Monday evening.
The teams convene at Riyadh's Al-Awwal Stadium, with Inter aiming to make it three Super Cup wins on the spin and their rivals seeking just a third success overall.
Match preview
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Following a shift in formation from their Scudetto-winning 4-3-3 setup to Walter Mazzarri's preferred three-man defence, new-look Napoli saw off last season's Coppa Italia runners-up Fiorentina on Thursday, in the Supercoppa's first-ever semi-final tie.
Mazzarri's men went ahead midway through the first half through Giovanni Simeone, making the most of a rare start in Victor Osimhen's absence, and condemned their Tuscan counterparts to defeat with a late double from substitute Alessio Zerbin, who applied the gloss with two late goals.
As a result, the Partenopei are now 90 minutes from lifting the trophy traditionally decided between Italy's league champions and cup winners for just a third time in their whole history - the last victory coming 10 years ago.
Napoli earned their place in this term's expanded format by finally ending a 33-year Scudetto drought last spring, but their title defence has recently gone off the rails, and they arrived in Saudi Arabia trailing far behind Serie A's leading duo, Inter and Juventus.
Having kicked off 2024 by losing for the fourth time in six league matches - enduring a painful 3-0 defeat to mid-table Torino - a last-gasp win over regional rivals Salernitana then left them eighth in the table, five points shy of fourth-placed Fiorentina.
Champions League qualification may still be within range for the Campanian club - and they are also involved in the knockout phase of this season's competition, where Barcelona await in the last 16 - but a significant shift in momentum is needed.
Securing some silverware by posting their third straight win would certainly provide a shot in the arm ahead of a crucial league clash with Lazio, who were vanquished by Inter in Friday's second semi-final.
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Matching the 3-0 scoreline of a league win over Napoli less than two months ago, Inter booked their place in the Supercoppa final in some style, dominating their Roman opponents almost from first minute to last.
Cup specialist Simone Inzaghi saw the Nerazzurri overrun his former club, with goals from Marcus Thuram, Hakan Calhanoglu and substitute Davide Frattesi securing success for last season's Coppa Italia winners.
Also beaten finalists in the 2022-23 Champions League, Inter have won the last two editions of the Supercoppa, beating city rivals AC Milan 3-0 last season, one year after taking down their other major foes, Juventus - they are now aiming for a hat-trick.
The Milanese giants warmed up for their jaunt to the Middle East with a 5-1 thrashing of Monza in Serie A last week, which kept their noses ahead of Juve in what appears to be a two-horse race for the title.
After claiming the unofficial crown of 'Campioni d'Inverno' (winter champions) by leading at the halfway stage, the Scudetto is Inter's primary target - next Sunday's game against Fiorentina precedes a potentially decisive Derby d'Italia contest with Juventus next month.
Nonetheless, led by the free-scoring duo of Thuram and captain Lautaro Martinez, they are also in contention to win the Champions League and can potentially add another trophy to their cabinet on Monday evening.
Team News
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Juan Cuadrado's absence following Achilles surgery aside, Simone Inzaghi should have a virtually full squad to choose from against Napoli; however, Alessandro Bastoni's presence is in some doubt due to a thigh problem - Stefan de Vrij is on standby.
Midfield fulcrum Hakan Calhanoglu will miss Inter's next league match due to suspension, but the Turkish star can start again on Monday.
Bagging a brace against Monza saw Lautaro Martinez post at least 20 goal involvements in each of the last four seasons: across Europe's top five leagues, only Mohamed Salah, Kylian Mbappe and Harry Kane have matched that achievement. The Argentina international partners Marcus Thuram at the top of Inter's customary 3-5-2 formation, but their opponents' star striker is unavailable.
Napoli not only travelled to Saudi Arabia without Victor Osimhen but also Frank Anguissa, as both are away at the Africa Cup of Nations. Walter Mazzarri - briefly Inter's head coach 10 years ago - will be missing his first-choice goalkeeper too.
Alex Meret (hamstring) joins Natan (shoulder) and Mathias Olivera (knee) on the sidelines, so Pierluigi Gollini once again deputises behind a three-man defence - assuming Mazzarri does not revert to the Partenopei's more familiar 4-3-3.
Wing wizard Khvicha Kvaratskhelia and Swedish midfielder Jens Cajuste will both be suspended at the weekend but can feature in the Supercoppa decider.
Napoli possible starting lineup:
Gollini; Di Lorenzo, Rrahmani, Jesus; Mazzocchi, Cajuste, Lobotka, Rui; Politano, Simeone, Kvaratskhelia
Inter Milan possible starting lineup:
Sommer; Pavard, De Vrij, Acerbi; Darmian, Barella, Calhanoglu, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco; Thuram, Martinez
We say: Napoli 1-2 Inter Milan
Back-to-back wins have papered over the cracks in Napoli's facade, but Inter are in peak form and are equipped to exploit their fellow finalists' flaws. Inzaghi's men can be ruthless in the final third - and they give very little away either.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 40.62%. A win for Inter Milan had a probability of 33.78% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Inter Milan win was 0-1 (8.44%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.
Jonathan O'Shea
