Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hartlepool United win with a probability of 41.44%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 32.72% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hartlepool United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.78%) and 2-0 (7.07%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (8.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.26%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.