Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southend United win with a probability of 39.02%. A win for Oldham Athletic had a probability of 34.84% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southend United win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Oldham Athletic win was 0-1 (9.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.42%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Southend United would win this match.
Result | ||
Southend United | Draw | Oldham Athletic |
39.02% ( 0.62) | 26.13% ( 0.28) | 34.84% ( -0.89) |
Both teams to score 53.62% ( -1.04) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
49.12% ( -1.28) | 50.88% ( 1.29) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
27.24% ( -1.14) | 72.76% ( 1.14) |
Southend United Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
74.44% ( -0.25) | 25.56% ( 0.26) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
39.57% ( -0.35) | 60.43% ( 0.35) |
Oldham Athletic Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.04% ( -1.15) | 27.96% ( 1.15) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
36.4% ( -1.49) | 63.59% ( 1.49) |
Score Analysis |
Southend United | Draw | Oldham Athletic |
1-0 @ 9.75% ( 0.43) 2-1 @ 8.47% ( 0.04) 2-0 @ 6.65% ( 0.24) 3-1 @ 3.85% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 3.02% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 2.46% ( -0.09) 4-1 @ 1.31% ( -0.01) 4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.47% Total : 39.02% | 1-1 @ 12.42% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 7.15% ( 0.36) 2-2 @ 5.4% ( -0.15) 3-3 @ 1.04% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.12% Total : 26.13% | 0-1 @ 9.11% ( 0.18) 1-2 @ 7.92% ( -0.16) 0-2 @ 5.8% ( -0.08) 1-3 @ 3.36% ( -0.18) 0-3 @ 2.47% ( -0.11) 2-3 @ 2.29% ( -0.14) 1-4 @ 1.07% ( -0.1) Other @ 2.82% Total : 34.84% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Barnet | 24 | 15 | 4 | 5 | 50 | 29 | 21 | 49 |
2 | York City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 47 | 20 | 27 | 48 |
3 | Forest Green RoversForest Green | 23 | 13 | 8 | 2 | 41 | 19 | 22 | 47 |
4 | Gateshead | 24 | 14 | 5 | 5 | 49 | 31 | 18 | 47 |
5 | Oldham AthleticOldham | 21 | 12 | 7 | 2 | 38 | 19 | 19 | 43 |
6 | Rochdale | 22 | 12 | 3 | 7 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 39 |
7 | Solihull MoorsSolihull | 24 | 11 | 5 | 8 | 43 | 36 | 7 | 38 |
8 | Halifax TownHalifax | 24 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 26 | 23 | 3 | 36 |
9 | AltrinchamAltrincham | 24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 37 | 30 | 7 | 35 |
10 | Yeovil TownYeovil | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 30 | 27 | 3 | 35 |
11 | Eastleigh | 23 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 33 |
12 | Sutton UnitedSutton | 24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 33 | 32 | 1 | 33 |
13 | Hartlepool UnitedHartlepool | 24 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 29 | 29 | 0 | 33 |
14 | Southend UnitedSouthend | 24 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 28 | 27 | 1 | 30 |
15 | Tamworth | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 26 | 39 | -13 | 30 |
16 | Dagenham & RedbridgeDag & Red | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 37 | 33 | 4 | 28 |
17 | Woking | 24 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 25 |
18 | Aldershot TownAldershot | 24 | 5 | 9 | 10 | 34 | 42 | -8 | 24 |
19 | WealdstoneWealdstone | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 35 | -7 | 23 |
20 | Braintree TownBraintree | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 23 | 35 | -12 | 23 |
21 | Maidenhead UnitedMaidenhead | 24 | 6 | 5 | 13 | 30 | 46 | -16 | 23 |
22 | Fylde | 24 | 6 | 4 | 14 | 29 | 50 | -21 | 22 |
23 | Boston UnitedBoston | 23 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 38 | -19 | 15 |
24 | Ebbsfleet | 24 | 1 | 6 | 17 | 17 | 58 | -41 | 9 |
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