Needing one point to secure a place in the UEFA Nations League quarter-finals, Italy will meet Belgium as League A Group 2 draws closer to its conclusion on Thursday.
The Azzurri only need to deny their hosts victory at Stade Roi Baudouin, while it is a case of win or bust for the Belgians, who have picked up just four points so far.
Match preview
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Belgium met neighbours France for the second time in the space of a month on matchday four of their Group 2 campaign, hoping to finally topple Les Bleus after dispiriting defeats in both the Nations League and Euro 2024.
However, the Red Devils succumbed to a 2-1 loss at the end of an eventful encounter in Brussels, which featured Youri Tielemans missing a penalty and Lois Openda scoring deep into first-half stoppage time, in-between either half of Randal Kolo Muani's match-winning brace.
Having previously fought back to draw 2-2 in Italy, where they played for more than 50 minutes against 10 men, Belgium's sole win so far remains September's 3-1 success against Israel on neutral turf.
Occupying third place - five points below France, and six shy of the Azzurri - Domenico Tedesco's side seem to be heading for a relegation playoff, which would determine whether they can keep their League A status.
A top-two finish is required to reach the knockout phase for a second time - in 2019, Belgium lost a third-place playoff to Italy in the finals - so their task is straightforward on Thursday: they must win to stay in contention.
That would take it down to Sunday's grand finale, when they will meet rock-bottom Israel in Hungary - but the Belgians have failed to beat their Italian counterparts in a competitive match since 1972.
© Imago
After putting up a dismal defence of their title at the Euros, new-look Italy have been a breath of fresh air in Group 2 thus far, racking up 10 points from a possible 12 to inch within a whisker of securing progress.
A place in the quarter-finals will be theirs by virtue of avoiding defeat in Belgium, who they let off the hook last month, losing a two-goal lead once Lorenzo Pellegrini was sent off.
That point still kept them top of the table, and the Azzurri went on to make it three wins from four by comfortably beating Israel 4-1 in Udine, as Giovanni Di Lorenzo helped himself to an unlikely brace and Serie A's Capocannoniere rankings leader Mateo Retegui scored from the spot.
After conceding the first goal of their campaign inside 13 seconds at Parc des Princes, Italy have recovered in some style, quickly adapting to Luciano Spalletti's new tactical approach, and a stunning comeback win over France clearly acted as the catalyst for what was to come.
Even if they cannot get the job done in midweek, another mouthwatering clash with Les Bleus is scheduled for Sunday evening at San Siro, easing any pressure on a squad with a younger age profile than previous editions of La Nazionale.
In fact, 25-year-old captain Gianluigi Donnarumma is practically an elder statesman in the dressing room, as stars such as Retegui, Alessandro Bastoni and Sandro Tonali lead the way in Spalletti's revolution.
Team News
© Imago
Belgium's Italo-German boss Domenico Tedesco will be without a whole host of senior players this week, despite welcoming all-time leading scorer Romelu Lukaku back into the fold following his withdrawal last month.
Captain Kevin De Bruyne headlines a long list also featuring Thomas Meunier, Jeremy Doku, Charles De Ketelaere, Youri Tielemans and Malick Fofana; meanwhile, Romeo Lavia and Club Brugge left-back Maxim De Cuyper - who scored a brilliant goal against Italy in October - are fitness doubts despite reporting for duty.
To make up the numbers, Tedesco has called in Juventus youngster Samuel Mbangula, Albert Sambi Lokonga, Killian Sardella and Arthur Vermeeren as replacements.
Italy's injury list features Arsenal defender Riccardo Calafiori and Torino midfielder Samuele Ricci, in addition to long-term absentees Gianluca Scamacca and Giorgio Scalvini - the Atalanta BC pair are not due to return until 2025.
Manuel Locatelli has been drafted in to replace Ricci and will compete with Lazio's Nicolo Rovella for selection in midfield, alongside Davide Frattesi and Sandro Tonali; Roma captain Lorenzo Pellegrini has been dropped.
Two red-hot strikers are vying for selection up front, as Mateo Retegui and Moise Kean - who scored a hat-trick for in-form Fiorentina last week - fight it out to win the nod from Luciano Spalletti, who has suggested that Nicolo Barella will link midfield and attack.
Belgium possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Castagne, Debast, Faes, Theate; Mangala, Onana; Lukebakio, Trossard, Bakayoko; Lukaku
Italy possible starting lineup:
Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Cambiaso, Frattesi, Locatelli, Tonali, Dimarco; Barella; Retegui
We say: Belgium 1-1 Italy
Although an unhappy Belgium camp is beset by withdrawals and injuries, Romelu Lukaku knows his opponents all too well and may bail out his nation once again.
A point would be enough for Italy to seal progress in any case, so another score draw between these teams is the likeliest result.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
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