Despite a narrow win against huge minnows on Friday, Azerbaijan were still dominant and will fancy their chances against out-of-form opponents here, especially after a respectable Euro qualifying campaign. A first win in 18 months against Tanzania will hardly raise spirits too much for a nation stagnating and struggling greatly for form, and a draw here would likely be perceived as a very good result for Bulgaria. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Azerbaijan win with a probability of 47.66%. A draw had a probability of 26.4% and a win for Bulgaria had a probability of 25.93%.

The most likely scoreline for an Azerbaijan win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.1%) and 2-1 (9.09%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.48%), while for a Bulgaria win it was 0-1 (8.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-1 draw for this match.

Result
Azerbaijan	Draw	Bulgaria
47.66% ( 0.05)	26.42% ( -0)	25.93% ( -0.04)

Both teams to score 48.47% (

-0.01)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.49%

55.51% (

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

23.31%

76.69% (

Azerbaijan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.69% (

0.02)

23.31% (

-0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

42.75% (

0.03)

57.25% (

-0.03)

Bulgaria Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

63.21% (

-0.03)

36.8% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

26.42% (

-0.03)

73.58% (

0.04)

Score Analysis

Azerbaijan 47.66%

Bulgaria 25.93%

Draw 26.41%

Azerbaijan	Draw	Bulgaria
1-0 @ 12.49% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 9.09% ( 0) 3-0 @ 4.42% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.41% ( 0) 3-2 @ 2.21% 4-0 @ 1.61% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.61% ( 0) Other @ 2.73% Total : 47.66%	1-1 @ 12.48% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.58% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.55% ( -0) Other @ 0.81% Total : 26.41%	0-1 @ 8.58% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.24% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.08% ( -0) 2-3 @ 1.52% ( -0) 0-3 @ 1.43% ( -0) Other @ 1.8% Total : 25.93%