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Euro 2020 header take 8

Euro 2024
Belgium national football team
Euro Champ Qualifying | Group Stage
Nov 19, 2023 at 5pm UK
Stade Roi Baudouin
Azerbaijan national football team

Belgium
5 - 0
Azerbaijan

Lukaku (17', 26', 30', 37'), Trossard (90')
Theate (22'), Vranckx (45')
FT(HT: 4-0)

Silvestre (20'), Mahammadaliyev (86')
Silvestre (24')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Euro Champ Qualifying clash between Belgium and Azerbaijan, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Belgium

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Belgium 1-0 Serbia
Wednesday, November 15 at 7.45pm in International Friendlies
Current Group F Standings P GD PTS
1Austria81019
2Belgium71317
3Sweden707
4Azerbaijan7-57
5Estonia7-181

Azerbaijan

All competitions
Euro Champ Qualifying
Last Game: Azerbaijan 3-0 Sweden
Thursday, November 16 at 5pm in Euro Champ Qualifying
Current Group F Standings P GD PTS
1Austria81019
2Belgium71317
3Sweden707
4Azerbaijan7-57
5Estonia7-181

We said: Belgium 2-0 Azerbaijan

 Competition for places - both in Belgium's Euro 2024 squad and their starting XI - should ensure the home side still aim to impress, despite already wrapping up qualification. Replicating an historic achievement just three days after seeing off Sweden will be too much to ask for Azerbaijan, who are set to suffer their fifth defeat from eight Group F games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgium win with a probability of 66.89%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for Azerbaijan had a probability of 13.89%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belgium win was 2-0 with a probability of 11.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.52%) and 2-1 (9.8%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.11%), while for an Azerbaijan win it was 0-1 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Belgium would win this match.

Result
BelgiumDrawAzerbaijan
66.89% (-0.034999999999997 -0.03) 19.23% (0.026999999999997 0.03) 13.89% (0.0079999999999991 0.01)
Both teams to score 51.17% (-0.068999999999996 -0.07)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
58.08% (-0.104 -0.1)41.92% (0.10299999999999 0.1)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
35.67% (-0.104 -0.1)64.33% (0.10300000000001 0.1)
Belgium Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
88.38% (-0.039999999999992 -0.04)11.62% (0.039000000000001 0.04)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
63.38% (-0.085000000000001 -0.09)36.62% (0.082999999999998 0.08)
Azerbaijan Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
57.9% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)42.1% (0.052 0.05)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
21.48% (-0.044999999999998 -0.04)78.52% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Score Analysis
    Belgium 66.87%
    Azerbaijan 13.89%
    Draw 19.23%
BelgiumDrawAzerbaijan
2-0 @ 11.33% (0.02 0.02)
1-0 @ 10.52% (0.029999999999999 0.03)
2-1 @ 9.8% (0.00099999999999945 0)
3-0 @ 8.13% (-0.00099999999999945 -0)
3-1 @ 7.04% (-0.011 -0.01)
4-0 @ 4.38% (-0.0070000000000006 -0.01)
4-1 @ 3.79% (-0.012 -0.01)
3-2 @ 3.04% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
5-0 @ 1.88% (-0.006 -0.01)
4-2 @ 1.64% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
5-1 @ 1.63% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 3.69%
Total : 66.87%
1-1 @ 9.11% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
0-0 @ 4.89% (0.023 0.02)
2-2 @ 4.24% (-0.0060000000000002 -0.01)
Other @ 0.99%
Total : 19.23%
0-1 @ 4.23% (0.013 0.01)
1-2 @ 3.94%
0-2 @ 1.83% (0.0030000000000001 0)
2-3 @ 1.22% (-0.0029999999999999 -0)
1-3 @ 1.14% (-0.0010000000000001 -0)
Other @ 1.53%
Total : 13.89%

How you voted: Belgium vs Azerbaijan

Belgium
79.1%
Draw
9.3%
Azerbaijan
11.6%
43
Head to Head
Sep 9, 2023 2pm
Group Stage
Azerbaijan
0-1
Belgium

Seydayev (78')
Carrasco (38')
Doku (90+2'), Batshuayi (90+3')
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