We said: Kosovo 2-0 Cyprus
Not only do Cyprus have a terrible record against their Kosovan counterparts, but they are also on a clear downward spiral.
Even in their star striker's absence, the hosts have momentum on their side and should beat opponents who routinely struggle to keep the back door shut.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kosovo win with a probability of 51.86%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Cyprus had a probability of 23.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kosovo win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.79%) and 2-1 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Cyprus win it was 0-1 (7.5%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Kosovo would win this match.