An Emilian derby with potentially serious consequences at the wrong end of the Serie A standings sees crisis club Parma tackling near neighbours Bologna on Sunday, at Stadio Ennio Tardini.
The hosts are desperate to halt a run of 11 straight winless Serie A matches, while Sinisa Mihajlovic's visiting side have won only once during the same period to slide to 15th place in the table.
Match preview
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In dire need of a quick reversal in fortunes, Parma are above only bottom side Crotone with a meagre 13 points from their 20 fixtures in a disastrous 2020-21 campaign, after defeat to Napoli in their last Serie A outing at Stadio Diego Maradona extended their excruciating run without victory.
Dating back to the end of November, when former manager Fabio Liverani was still in charge, their win-free streak is far from the only ugly statistic they have stacked up this term.
Since December, Parma have failed to score in eight league games - no side within the top five European Leagues have failed to do so more often in that period - and the Gialloblu have failed to register in their last seven home matches in the top flight, with only Sampdoria's record of nine back in 1972 representing a worse such run in Serie A history.
Roberto D'Aversa certainly walked into a messy situation when succeeding Liverani, but has yet to inspire a turnaround in results, so will have been relieved to see his bosses sanction some much-needed movement in the transfer market late last month.
Undoubtedly, the Crociati will be pinning all hopes on newcomers Graziano Pelle - returning to his homeland from a globe-trotting spell which included stops in the Netherlands, England and China - Bayern Munich loanee Joshua Zirkzee and exciting Romanian prospect Dennis Man injecting some life into an ailing attack.
Only 14 goals in total, with midfielder Juraj Kucka remaining their lone scorer in the past two months while Andreas Cornelius and Gervinho have toiled in vain and both Roberto Inglese and Yann Karamoh have been out injured, tells the tale of Parma's sorry season so far.
Remarkably, they have not been cut adrift though, so it is surely not too late to revive their hopes of Serie A salvation with a morale-boosting win on Sunday.
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Bologna make the short trip to the Tardini having only won one of their last 11 league games themselves, in a period which has seen the Rossoblu register too many draws when all three points were in plain sight.
In their last outing, they were beaten 2-1 by leaders Milan at Dall'Ara, leaving them precariously placed just five points above the drop zone - so far averaging just a point per game.
Having kept only three clean sheets to date, it is apparent that the source of Sinisa Mihajlovic's main concern is his leaky defence. To remedy that situation, the former Torino coach has brought in three defensive reinforcements during the transfer window, with perhaps the perfect opportunity to bed them in coming against shot-shy Parma this week.
The most recent encounter between the two teams saw Bologna emerge victorious 4-1 from the reverse fixture in September.
Top scorer Roberto Soriano netted twice in the first half that day, while veteran striker Rodrigo Palacio was also on target. Perhaps his favourite opponents in the league, Palacio's strike last autumn was his 11th in total against Parma, a tally which includes his very first in Serie A - back in December 2009, for Genoa.
On Sunday, his current club will aim to extend their run of eight league games undefeated against the Crociati - their longest streak without a loss against their local rivals in the top flight. Maintaining a record which extends to December 2012 will be the minimum requirement for Mihajlovic's men, as they are expected to heap further misery on their hosts this time around.
Parma Serie A form: LLLDLL
Parma form (all competitions): LLDLLL
Bologna Serie A form: DDLWLL
Team News
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As Yann Karamoh is close to a return from injury and Graziano Pelle has joined the Parma squad, current forwards Gervinho and Andreas Cornelius find their places under threat due to a paucity of goals, but should start this vital clash for Roberto D'Aversa's side.
Veteran centre-back Bruno Alves is expected to come straight back into the lineup, possibly alongside new signings Mattia Bani and Andrea Conti. Fellow defenders Giuseppe Pezzella and Vincent Laurini - suffering from a thigh problem - are ruled out though.
Bologna winger Riccardo Orsolini is considered a doubt for Sunday due to fatigue and loss of form and could be replaced by Andreas Skov Olsen, who made some impact after coming on in Milan, with Rodrigo Palacio likely to return in place of Musa Barrow in the lone striker's role.
Sinisa Mihajlovic can pick from a nearly full-strength squad, though Gary Medel's return to training has been kept in check by a lingering calf issue and Paolo Farago was sidelined by a thigh strain in his final days at previous club Cagliari.
Mitchell Dijks will compete directly with Aaron Hickey for the left-back role and Mattias Svanberg challenges Nicolas Dominguez for a central midfield spot in the Serbian coach's customary 4-2-3-1 formation.
Parma possible starting lineup:
Sepe; Conti, Bani, Alves, Gagliolo; Grassi, Hernani, Kurtic; Gervinho, Cornelius, Kucka
Bologna possible starting lineup:
Skorupski; De Silvestri, Danilo, Tomiyasu, Dijks; Dominguez, Schouten; Skov Olsen, Soriano, Barrow; Palacio
We say: Parma 1-0 Bologna
Potentially canny new recruits can help Parma edge a first win in many weeks over the line against Bologna, keeping them in touch with the clubs around them - including their Emilian counterparts.
Impetus provided by an injection of fresh blood could be just what the Gialloblu's misfiring attack has been crying out for, while Bologna's recent miserable run is set to continue despite signs of life last week.
Top betting tip
Jonathan O'Shea
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bologna win with a probability of 42.22%. A win for Parma had a probability of 31.93% and a draw had a probability of 25.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bologna win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.85%) and 0-2 (7.26%). The likeliest Parma win was 1-0 (8.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Bologna would win this match.
