The two highest-scoring teams in the Eastern Conference this season will square off at Subaru Park on Thursday as the Philadelphia Union host FC Cincinnati for the first time in the MLS Cup playoffs.
Cincy came back to beat the New York Red Bulls 2-1 last Saturday, scoring twice with fewer than 20 minutes remaining, while Philly earned the top spot in the Eastern Conference for the second time in three seasons with 67 points.
Match preview
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For Jim Curtin and his Union, the 2022 campaign has been about unfinished business after this team lost at home in the Eastern Conference Final last year, 2-1, versus New York City FC.
Philly will have a much healthier unit than they did on that occasion when nine of their 11 regulars were unavailable because of COVID-19, in a match they wound up narrowly losing despite scoring the opening goal.
They were the only team in 2022 who did not suffer a home defeat, although the Union have never won a playoff game in Philly after 90 minutes, defeating the New York Red Bulls in extra-time last year (1-0) and following that up with a victory over Nashville SC on penalties in a game which ended 1-1.
Throughout the campaign, the Union were the most potent offensive unit in Major League Soccer, notching a league-high 72 goals.
Philadelphia were just as good if not better on the back end, though, as their 0.76 goals allowed per match this season (26/34) was the second-lowest average in a single season in league history, behind only Real Salt Lake, who allowed 0.67 goals per game in 2010 when the regular season was only 30 matches.
In four previous meetings against the Orange and Blue, the Union have never lost to them at Subaru Park, posting a clean sheet in three of those encounters.
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Making their first playoff appearance over the weekend, Cincinnati overcame some early jitters to advance to the Eastern Conference semi-finals.
That was the first time all season that this team went on to win a match in 90 minutes despite trailing in the second half.
In his rookie season as head coach, Pat Noonan has taken this team to new heights in virtually every statistical category, while the former Union assistant from 2018-2021 has not lost to Philly since taking this job, defeating his old club 3-1 in August and coming back to earn a 1-1 draw at Subaru Park in June.
On Saturday, the Orange and Blue were shut out in the opening half for the first time since July 17, though they have scored in 14 consecutive MLS affairs, the longest stretch in club history.
On the defensive side, this team have now conceded in five consecutive MLS affairs, while they have allowed multiple goals in seven road matches this year.
Cincinnati have only failed to find the back of the net on five occasions all season long, four of which came away from home.
Team News
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Union goalkeeper Andre Blake was nominated for league MVP and Goalkeeper of the Year, Curtin is a finalist for Coach of the Year, while Kai Wagner and Jakob Glesnes were both nominated for Defender of the Year honours and Alejandro Bedoya is on the shortlist for the Humanitarian of the Year Award.
Paxten Aaronson has three goals in his career versus the Orange and Blue, including the only strike in their defeat to them earlier this season, while Daniel Gazdag finished second in the Golden Boot race this year, scoring 22 times, one fewer than Hany Mukhtar.
Bedoya is questionable for this encounter because of a hip flexor strain, while Curtin made two changes to his starting 11 on Decision Day as Olivier Mbaizo replaced the suspended Wagner, while Matthew Real was put in at fullback, leaving Nathan Harriel on the bench.
Brandon Vazquez had the winner for Cincy at Red Bull Arena, his third in his last three games, with Luciano Acosta firing home the equaliser from the penalty spot, as those two, along with Brenner, are the only three players who have scored goals for this team in each of their last five MLS contests.
Alvaro Barreal had a goal and an assist when they defeated the Union earlier this season, while Roman Celentano has not picked up a clean sheet away from home since stopping five Minnesota United efforts in a 1-0 victory at Allianz Field in May.
Beckham Sunderland remains out because of concussion protocol, Kenneth Vermeer has a torn pectoral muscle, while Cincy have four players who are one yellow card away from potentially missing the next match should they advance as Matt Miazga, Nick Hagglund, Ray Gaddis and former Union forward Sergio Santos were all cautioned against the Red Bulls.
Philadelphia Union possible starting lineup:
Blake; Wagner, Glesnes, Elliott, Harriel; McGlynn, Martinez, Flach; Gazdag; Carranza, Uhre
FC Cincinnati possible starting lineup:
Celentano; Miazga, Cameron, Hagglund, Murphy; Kubo; Moreno, Nwobodo, Acosta; Brenner, Vazquez
We say: Philadelphia Union 3-2 FC Cincinnati
These are two of the most lethal MLS sides in the attacking third, and although Cincy have a better record against the Union this year, we are giving the home team an edge because of how much sharper they are defensively, along with their experience in these elimination games.
For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.
