MLS Playoffs | Conference Semi-Finals

Oct 21, 2022 at 1am UK

PPL Park

Philadelphia
1 - 0
Cincinnati

Flach (59')
Flach (63'), Mbaizo (68'), Andres Martinez (81'), Gazdag (81')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Hagglund (25'), Miazga (58')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Friday's MLS Playoffs clash between Philadelphia Union and FC Cincinnati, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Philadelphia Union

All competitions

Last Game: Philadelphia 4-0 Toronto
Sunday, October 9 at 7.30pm in Major League Soccer

Goals
for

Top scorers

FC Cincinnati

All competitions

MLS Playoffs

Last Game: NY Red Bulls 1-2 Cincinnati
Saturday, October 15 at 5pm in MLS Playoffs

Goals
for

We said: Philadelphia Union 3-2 FC Cincinnati

These are two of the most lethal MLS sides in the attacking third, and although Cincy have a better record against the Union this year, we are giving the home team an edge because of how much sharper they are defensively, along with their experience in these elimination games. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 66.45%. A draw had a probability of 18.9% and a win for FC Cincinnati had a probability of 14.67%.

The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.82%) and 1-0 (9.34%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.82%), while for a FC Cincinnati win it was 1-2 (4.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.

Result
Philadelphia Union	Draw	FC Cincinnati
66.45%	18.88%	14.67%

Both teams to score 54.52%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

61.43%

38.57%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

39.13%

60.87%

Philadelphia Union Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

89.22%

10.78%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

65.22%

34.78%

FC Cincinnati Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

61.11%

38.89%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

24.38%

75.62%

Score Analysis

Philadelphia Union 66.45%

FC Cincinnati 14.67%

Draw 18.89%

Philadelphia Union	Draw	FC Cincinnati
2-0 @ 10.4% 2-1 @ 9.82% 1-0 @ 9.34% 3-0 @ 7.72% 3-1 @ 7.29% 4-0 @ 4.3% 4-1 @ 4.06% 3-2 @ 3.45% 4-2 @ 1.92% 5-0 @ 1.92% 5-1 @ 1.81% Other @ 4.42% Total : 66.45%	1-1 @ 8.82% 2-2 @ 4.64% 0-0 @ 4.19% 3-3 @ 1.08% Other @ 0.16% Total : 18.89%	1-2 @ 4.16% 0-1 @ 3.96% 0-2 @ 1.87% 2-3 @ 1.46% 1-3 @ 1.31% Other @ 1.9% Total : 14.67%