Port Vale play host to Exeter City on Tuesday evening with just five points separating the two clubs in the League Two standings.
However, while Exeter have recently moved into the automatic promotion positions, six places is currently the difference with Port Vale down in eighth spot.
Match preview
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At a time when Forest Green Rovers have been faltering in top spot, the chasing pack have been licking their lips at the prospect of an unlikely title success.
Heading into 2022, Exeter were clear outsiders to make any sort of a challenge, but nine wins since the turn of the year has transformed the Grecians into genuine contenders.
Matt Taylor's team started the week in indifferent form, a perception which has now changed with successive victories over Crawley Town and Oldham Athletic.
Although Exeter were made to work hard in both fixtures, they are now in a position where they will feel confident about eventually catching Forest Green, as well as withstanding the pressure from the teams below them.
Exeter's triumph at Boundary Park at the weekend halted a two-match winless streak away from home, and it was needed given the home form of their next opponents.
Port Vale have avoided defeat in their most recent six games at their Staffordshire ground and they are currently on a three-match winning streak, both on familiar territory and in all fixtures.
After seeing off playoff rivals Mansfield Town by a 3-1 scoreline, Darrell Clarke's team built on that result with a 2-1 win away at Bradford City on Saturday afternoon.
As it stands, Vale remain outside of the top seven, but possessing two matches in hand on many of the teams above them means that their fate is in their own hands.
While the goals have been shared out of late, Ben Garrity has now reached double figures for the campaign with three in as many games and James Wilson reaching seven with efforts in back-to-back outings.
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Team News
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Barring any injury issues, Clarke may be prepared to stick with the Port Vale starting lineup from the win at Bradford.
Despite having failed to score in six games, Jamie Proctor has chipped in with two assists, and Clarke is likely to favour his partnership with Wilson over handing a recall to Ryan Edmondson or Kian Harratt.
Exeter will have to make do without Nigel Atangana after he collected two yellow cards as a substitute versus Oldham.
Kyle Taylor is sidelined after sustaining a serious-looking injury during the closing stages of that fixture, while Timothee Dieng will be assessed after his withdrawal at half time.
Matt Jay looks set to be recalled in an advanced midfield role, while someone, potentially Cheick Diabate, may have to deputise in an unfamiliar defensive-midfield role if Dieng is deemed unavailable.
Port Vale possible starting lineup:
Stone; Smith, Walker, Hall; Worrall, Pett, Charlsey, Benning; Garrity; Wilson, Proctor
Exeter City possible starting lineup:
Dawson; Sweeney, Stubbs, Hartridge; Caprice, Collins, Dieng, Sparkes; Jay; Phillips, Brown
We say: Port Vale 1-1 Exeter City
Both teams have been firing on all cylinders of late, and the confidence will be there to add to their respective recent runs. With that in mind, we can see a competitive draw being played out in Staffordshire, one which would benefit Exeter slightly more than the home side.
Top tip
Darren Plant
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 40.01%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 32.48% and a draw had a probability of 27.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.32%) and 2-0 (7.4%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 0-1 (10.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
