Portsmouth and Cheltenham Town head into Tuesday's League One fixture unexpectedly level on points and in midtable at this stage of the season.
The hosts were expected to battle it out for promotion yet again before a ball was kicked but are greatly underachieving, whilst their visitors were expected to be hovering around the relegation zone following their promotion from League Two but are enjoying a bright start to the campaign.
Match preview
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Manager Danny Cowley has failed to live up to expectations since his arrival at Portsmouth back in March.
The former Lincoln City and Huddersfield Town boss initially enjoyed a bright start in his task to lead the south-coast side to the playoffs, but a poor finish to the 2020-21 season saw them fall away and finish two points and places outside of the top six.
Hope will have remained for some that believed Cowley could reignite their push for promotion to the Championship in his first full season in charge; however, that has proved to be a great struggle so far.
The initial three-straight league victories to begin the 2021-22 campaign have been followed by just two further triumphs in the 13 games since, which leaves Pompey in an unusual 13th place heading into Tuesday's match.
On a brighter note, however, one of those wins arrived on Saturday, when Portsmouth saw off fellow midtable side Bolton Wanderers by a 1-0 scoreline at Fratton Park.
John Marquis netted the only goal of the game shortly after half time, in what was a tight encounter and perhaps a fortunate result considering the visitors struck the woodwork on three occasions.
The three points were the most important aspect, though, and Cowley will be hopeful that the result can be used to carry some confidence into Tuesday's encounter with Cheltenham.
Meanwhile, as mentioned above, Cheltenham are enjoying a positive opening to their League One campaign, and are currently occupying 16th place in the table at the time of writing as a result.
Many will have expected the Robins to struggle and immediately drop back down to League Two, but Michael Duff's side have performed admirably so far.
After initial struggles in finding the back of the net, his side have managed to score seven goals in their last three league fixtures, which has helped earn them seven points from their last four.
Two of those goals arrived in Saturday's draw with Sheffield Wednesday, and a point was the least they deserved based on the balance of play and chances during the game.
Were it not for Matty Blair's stoppage-time equaliser, however, Cheltenham would have been going home empty handed, after Kyle Vassell's early opener was followed by two second-half replies from their visitors.
The character displayed, and the confidence gained from that late equaliser will be required again on Tuesday, as despite being level on points in the table, Cheltenham face a tough trip to the south coast to face Portsmouth, particularly when Duff has overseen his side pick up just five points on their travels so far.
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Team News
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Portsmouth look set to remain without at least five players for the visit of Cheltenham on Tuesday evening.
Captain Clark Robertson will miss out again due to a hip problem, whilst Ellis Harrison and Jayden Reid will remain unavailable due to ankle and knee injuries respectively.
Paul Downing and Liam Vincent are nearing returns but this match will come too soon for them as they have only managed to return to light training recently.
Ryan Tunnicliffe had to be replaced before half time at the weekend due to an injury he picked up in a challenge, so it remains to be seen if he is fit enough to play, with Joe Morrell or Louis Thompson fighting for his place should he miss out.
As for the visitors, they appear to have no fresh injury concerns ahead of their trip to Portsmouth.
That means they should have four players unavailable - Will Boyle, Charlie Raglan, Taylor Perry and Callum Wright - after their absences over the past few weeks.
Portsmouth possible starting lineup:
Bazunu; Romeo, Raggett, Ogilvie, Brown; Morrell, Williams; Harness, Hackett-Fairchild, Curtis; Marquis
Cheltenham Town possible starting lineup:
Flinders; Blair, Pollock, Long, Hussey; Sercombe, Thomas, Chapman; May; Joseph, Vassell
We say: Portsmouth 2-1 Cheltenham Town
Portsmouth have failed to live up to expectations so far this season but their win at the weekend should give them the confidence to see them over the line against a Cheltenham side full of confidence themselves.
The hosts should possess the quality to win this one, especially considering the struggles of the Robins on their travels this season.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 50.93%. A draw had a probability of 25.6% and a win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.74%) and 2-1 (9.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.1%), while for a Cheltenham Town win it was 0-1 (7.83%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.
