Portugal will be looking to book their spot in the knockout round of the European Championship with one match to spare when they take on Germany in Munich on Saturday evening.
Fernando Santos's side opened their Euro 2020 campaign with a 3-0 win over Hungary, but Germany have work to do in Group F, having suffered a 1-0 loss to tournament favourites France.
Match preview
© Reuters
Portugal were actually level with Hungary approaching the final stages of Monday's contest in Budapest, and it did appear that it would be a frustrating start to the section for the reigning champions.
However, Raphael Guerreiro made the breakthrough in the 84th minute of the contest before Cristiano Ronaldo came up with a late double - one of which was from the penalty spot - to make it a three-goal success for Portugal and ensure that he would become the all-time leading goalscorer in European Championship history.
Santos's side will head into Saturday's clash knowing that a win would book their spot in the last-16 stage of the competition, while they would confirm a position in the top two if they triumph and Hungary do not overcome France in Group F's other contest on the same night.
A Selecao have a strong overall record in this competition, reaching the semi-finals in 1984, 2000 and 2012, while they were present in the final eight of Euro 1996 and Euro 2008. Portugal were also runners-up on home soil at Euro 2004 and are, of course, the holders, having beaten France 1-0 in the final of Euro 2016.
Santos's team are now on a seven-game unbeaten run in all competitions, but they have lost each of their last four international fixtures with Germany, including a 4-0 defeat when the two teams last locked horns at the 2014 World Cup.
© Reuters
Germany, meanwhile, will enter this key contest off the back of a 1-0 defeat to France on Tuesday, with an own goal from Mats Hummels deciding the contest in Munich.
In truth, it was a disappointing performance from Joachim Low's side, who struggled to create opportunities, and it will be fascinating to see whether there are any changes for this clash with Portugal.
Die Mannschaft will be unable to finish in the top two positions if they lose this match and Hungary do not beat France, but third, which could potentially bring a spot in the round of 16, would still be open.
Germany will be desperate to bounce back on Saturday, though, as they bid to qualify for the knockout round of the European Championship for the fourth time in succession. Having won the tournament in 1996, the Germans then failed to make it out of the group stage in 2000 and 2004.
DFB-Elf finished as runners-up at Euro 2008 before making the semi-finals in 2012 and 2016, though, and it would not be a surprise to see them advance deep into this competition despite their issues against France.
- W
- W
- D
- W
- D
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
- L
- D
- W
- L
Team News
© Reuters
Nuno Mendes is carrying a slight thigh problem and had to train away from the main group on Thursday, but Portugal do not have any other injury concerns heading into this match.
Santos will certainly be tempted to make changes here, but a positive result against Germany would allow him to rest a number of key players in their final game of the section against France.
As a result, it would not be a surprise to see the same XI sent onto the field, with Danilo and William Carvalho keeping their spots in the middle of the park despite competition from Renato Sanches and Ruben Neves.
Rafa Silva and Andre Silva are among the options for change further forward, but it seems unlikely that either Bernardo Silva or Diogo Jota will be left out, while Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes are certain starters.
As for Germany, Matthias Ginter had emerged as a doubt after being forced off in the latter stages of the clash with France, but the centre-back is expected to be fit to start once again.
Leroy Sane was the first player off the German bench against the world champions, and it would not be a surprise to see the former Manchester City attacker replace Kai Havertz in the starting XI here.
Timo Werner and Emre Can are also among the options for change, but Low is likely to resist the temptation to shuffle his pack from the loss to France.
As a result, Robin Gosens and Joshua Kimmich should again line up in the wing-back areas, while Thomas Muller and Serge Gnabry are likely to keep their spots in the final third of the field.
Portugal possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Semedo, Pepe, Dias, Guerreiro; Danilo, Carvalho; Bernardo, Fernandes, Jota; Ronaldo
Germany possible starting lineup:
Neuer; Ginter, Hummels, Rudiger; Kimmich, Gundogan, Kroos, Gosens; Sane, Muller, Gnabry
We say: Portugal 1-1 Germany
There is simply no downplaying the importance of this contest despite the early stage of the tournament. Germany will be so desperate to avoid defeat that it could turn into a cagey affair, but Portugal would likely accept a point, so we can see the two teams playing out a low-scoring draw on Saturday.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 40.25%. A win for Portugal had a probability of 33% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.18%). The likeliest Portugal win was 1-0 (9.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Germany would win this match.