Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 57.38%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Nottingham Forest had a probability of 19.34%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.64%) and 2-1 (9.78%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.07%), while for a Nottingham Forest win it was 0-1 (6.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.
Result | ||
Aston Villa | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
57.38% ( 0) | 23.28% ( -0.07) | 19.34% ( 0.07) |
Both teams to score 49.79% ( 0.33) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
50.25% ( 0.38) | 49.75% ( -0.38) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
28.24% ( 0.34) | 71.76% ( -0.34) |
Aston Villa Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
82.9% ( 0.14) | 17.1% ( -0.14) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
52.7% ( 0.24) | 47.3% ( -0.24) |
Nottingham Forest Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
60.06% ( 0.3) | 39.93% ( -0.3) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
23.41% ( 0.27) | 76.59% ( -0.27) |
Score Analysis |
Aston Villa | Draw | Nottingham Forest |
1-0 @ 12.06% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 10.64% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 9.78% ( 0.02) 3-0 @ 6.27% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 5.76% ( 0.04) 4-0 @ 2.77% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.64% ( 0.04) 4-1 @ 2.54% ( 0.03) 4-2 @ 1.17% ( 0.02) 5-0 @ 0.98% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.77% Total : 57.37% | 1-1 @ 11.07% ( -0.03) 0-0 @ 6.83% ( -0.11) 2-2 @ 4.49% ( 0.04) Other @ 0.9% Total : 23.28% | 0-1 @ 6.27% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 5.08% ( 0.03) 0-2 @ 2.88% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.56% ( 0.02) 2-3 @ 1.37% ( 0.02) Other @ 2.19% Total : 19.34% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Liverpool | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 2 | 10 | 15 |
2 | Manchester CityMan City | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 14 | 6 | 8 | 14 |
3 | Arsenal | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 14 |
4 | Chelsea | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 7 | 8 | 13 |
5 | Aston Villa | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 9 | 3 | 13 |
6 | Fulham | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 11 |
7 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 11 |
8 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 10 |
9 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 9 |
10 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
11 | Bournemouth | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 8 |
12 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 | -2 | 7 |
13 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
14 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 5 |
15 | Ipswich TownIpswich | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | -5 | 4 |
16 | Everton | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 15 | -8 | 4 |
17 | Leicester CityLeicester | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 3 |
18 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 3 |
19 | Southampton | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 1 |
20 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 16 | -10 | 1 |
> Premier League Full Table |