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Arouca
Benfica
Boavista
Braga
Casa Pia
Estoril
Estrela Amadora
Famalicao logo
Gil Vicente logo
Moreirense
Nacional
Porto
Rio Ave
Farense logo
Santa Clara
Sporting Lisbon
Vitoria de Guimaraes
Arouca
Primeira Liga | Gameweek 1
Aug 13, 2023 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Arouca
Estoril

Arouca
4 - 3
Estoril

Mujica (20'), Cristo (57'), Feltes (73' og.), Santos (90+6')
Esgaio (4'), Sylla (10'), Kouassi (21'), Santos (90+7')
Kouassi (37')
FT(HT: 1-1)
Holsgrove (10'), Marques (49'), Marques (70')
Holsgrove (41'), Gomes (90+10')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Arouca and Estoril Praia, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Arouca 2-1 Brann
Thursday, August 10 at 7pm in Europa Conference League

We said: Arouca 2-1 Estoril Praia

Arouca's solid preseason form, capped off with their midweek win against Brann, sees them come into this match as the fancied side to claim the points. They have scored two or more goals in five of their last six home games in all competitions, and we expect they will get at least another couple in this one. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 45.18%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 27.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.

Result
AroucaDrawEstoril Praia
45.18% (-0.068999999999996 -0.07) 27.27% (0.124 0.12) 27.55% (-0.055 -0.05)
Both teams to score 47.24% (-0.381 -0.38)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
42.31% (-0.472 -0.47)57.69% (0.472 0.47)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
21.55% (-0.374 -0.37)78.45% (0.374 0.37)
Arouca Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.54% (-0.244 -0.24)25.46% (0.245 0.25)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.71% (-0.337 -0.34)60.29% (0.337 0.34)
Estoril Praia Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
63.37% (-0.302 -0.3)36.63% (0.30099999999999 0.3)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
26.58% (-0.305 -0.31)73.42% (0.30500000000001 0.31)
Score Analysis
    Arouca 45.17%
    Estoril Praia 27.55%
    Draw 27.27%
AroucaDrawEstoril Praia
1-0 @ 12.75% (0.13 0.13)
2-1 @ 8.77% (-0.039 -0.04)
2-0 @ 8.73% (0.033999999999999 0.03)
3-1 @ 4% (-0.045 -0.04)
3-0 @ 3.98% (-0.013 -0.01)
3-2 @ 2.01% (-0.04 -0.04)
4-1 @ 1.37% (-0.026 -0.03)
4-0 @ 1.36% (-0.015 -0.01)
Other @ 2.22%
Total : 45.17%
1-1 @ 12.81% (0.040000000000001 0.04)
0-0 @ 9.33% (0.166 0.17)
2-2 @ 4.4% (-0.056 -0.06)
Other @ 0.73%
Total : 27.27%
0-1 @ 9.37% (0.091000000000001 0.09)
1-2 @ 6.43% (-0.035 -0.04)
0-2 @ 4.7% (0.008 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.15% (-0.03 -0.03)
0-3 @ 1.57% (-0.011 -0.01)
2-3 @ 1.47% (-0.031 -0.03)
Other @ 1.84%
Total : 27.55%

Head to Head
May 15, 2023 8.15pm
Gameweek 32
Estoril
2-0
Arouca
Carvalho (68'), Cassiano (90+4')
Jan 7, 2023 3.30pm
Gameweek 15
Arouca
2-0
Estoril
Dabbagh (28', 64')
Jan 27, 2022 8.15pm
Gameweek 18
Estoril
1-2
Arouca
Ba (6' og.)
Joaozinho (26'), Franco (67'), Geraldes (90+6')
Silva (89'), Kouassi (90+7')
Ba (54'), Moreira (75')
Aug 7, 2021 12.45pm
Gameweek 1
Arouca
0-2
Estoril

Andres Caballero (88')
Filipe Russo Franco (4'), Meshino (90+6')
Gamboa (38'), Alexis Leite Figueira (57'), Geraldes (89')
May 21, 2017 6pm
Estoril
4-2
Arouca
Claro (6'), Carlinhos (19'), Gomes (30'), Tocantins (76')
Dankler (39'), Yarchuk (79'), Basso (91')
Goiano (1', 31')
Costa (5'), Mateus (51'), Gonzalez (82'), Adilson (84')
Basto (41')
rhs 2.0
Today's games header
Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Benfica1512213782938
2Sporting Lisbon15121243103337
3Porto1512123692737
4Braga1584327161128
5Santa ClaraSanta Clara159061615127
6Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes156542016423
7Casa Pia155551618-220
8MoreirenseMoreirense156271922-320
9FamalicaoFamalicao154741817119
10Gil Vicente154561724-717
11Rio AveRio Ave154471526-1116
12Estrela Amadora154381324-1115
13Estoril PraiaEstoril153571224-1214
14AVS152761122-1113
15Nacional153481021-1113
16BoavistaBoavista152671019-912
17SC FarenseFarense15339921-1212
18AroucaArouca153210926-1711


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