Primeira Liga | Gameweek 1
Aug 13, 2023 at 8.30pm UK
Estadio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca4 - 3Estoril
Form, Standings, Stats
Last Game: Arouca 2-1 Brann
Thursday, August 10 at 7pm in Europa Conference League
Thursday, August 10 at 7pm in Europa Conference League
Last Game: Estoril 5-1 CF Os Belenenses
Saturday, July 29 at 8.30pm in Taca da Liga
Saturday, July 29 at 8.30pm in Taca da Liga
We said: Arouca 2-1 Estoril Praia
Arouca's solid preseason form, capped off with their midweek win against Brann, sees them come into this match as the fancied side to claim the points. They have scored two or more goals in five of their last six home games in all competitions, and we expect they will get at least another couple in this one. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 45.18%. A win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 27.55% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Estoril Praia win was 0-1 (9.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 4-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Estoril Praia |
45.18% ( -0.07) | 27.27% ( 0.12) | 27.55% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 47.24% ( -0.38) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
