Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 37.89%. A win for Portimonense had a probability of 35.4% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Portimonense win was 1-0 (9.77%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 0-2 win for Arouca in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Arouca.
Result | ||
Portimonense | Draw | Arouca |
35.4% ( -0.31) | 26.71% ( 0.06) | 37.89% ( 0.25) |
Both teams to score 51.82% ( -0.21) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.79% ( -0.25) | 53.2% ( 0.25) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.23% ( -0.22) | 74.77% ( 0.22) |
Portimonense Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
71.26% ( -0.31) | 28.74% ( 0.31) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
35.42% ( -0.39) | 64.58% ( 0.39) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
72.73% ( 0.02) | 27.27% ( -0.02) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
37.29% ( 0.03) | 62.7% ( -0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Portimonense | Draw | Arouca |
1-0 @ 9.77% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 7.92% ( -0.05) 2-0 @ 6.09% ( -0.04) 3-1 @ 3.29% ( -0.05) 3-0 @ 2.53% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0.03) 4-1 @ 1.03% ( -0.03) Other @ 2.64% Total : 35.4% | 1-1 @ 12.69% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 7.84% ( 0.08) 2-2 @ 5.14% ( -0.03) 3-3 @ 0.93% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.7% | 0-1 @ 10.18% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 8.25% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 6.62% ( 0.08) 1-3 @ 3.57% ( 0.01) 0-3 @ 2.87% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 2.23% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.01) 0-4 @ 0.93% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.08% Total : 37.89% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 53 | 14 | 39 | 47 |
2 | Benfica | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 43 | 14 | 29 | 41 |
3 | Porto | 19 | 13 | 2 | 4 | 42 | 15 | 27 | 41 |
4 | Braga | 19 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 34 | 19 | 15 | 37 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 32 |
6 | Casa Pia | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 25 | 23 | 2 | 30 |
7 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 28 | 25 | 3 | 26 |
8 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 24 |
9 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 26 | -4 | 23 |
10 | Rio AveRio Ave | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 32 | -12 | 23 |
11 | Gil Vicente | 19 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 28 | -6 | 22 |
12 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 19 | 4 | 9 | 6 | 20 | 24 | -4 | 21 |
13 | Nacional | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 26 | -10 | 19 |
14 | AroucaArouca | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 19 |
15 | AVS | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 18 |
16 | Estrela Amadora | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 16 | 30 | -14 | 17 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 19 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 15 |
18 | BoavistaBoavista | 19 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 13 | 32 | -19 | 12 |
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