Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Benfica win with a probability of 82.62%. A draw had a probability of 11.2% and a win for Estoril Praia had a probability of 6.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Benfica win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.38%) and 4-0 (8.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.15%), while for a Estoril Praia win it was 1-2 (1.94%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Benfica would win this match.
Result | ||
Benfica | Draw | Estoril Praia |
82.62% ( -0.04) | 11.22% ( 0.07) | 6.16% ( -0.04) |
Both teams to score 50.44% ( -0.64) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
73.06% ( -0.6) | 26.94% ( 0.6) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
52.58% ( -0.77) | 47.42% ( 0.76) |
Benfica Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
95.23% ( -0.12) | 4.77% ( 0.12) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
80.71% ( -0.35) | 19.29% ( 0.35) |
Estoril Praia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
52.97% ( -0.61) | 47.03% ( 0.61) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
17.49% ( -0.47) | 82.51% ( 0.46) |
Score Analysis |
Benfica | Draw | Estoril Praia |
3-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 10.38% ( 0.22) 4-0 @ 8.01% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.95% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 7.84% ( 0.03) 1-0 @ 6.83% ( 0.2) 4-1 @ 6.04% ( -0.07) 5-0 @ 4.88% ( -0.01) 5-1 @ 3.68% ( -0.07) 3-2 @ 3% ( -0.06) 6-0 @ 2.47% ( -0.03) 4-2 @ 2.28% ( -0.07) 6-1 @ 1.87% ( -0.05) 5-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.05) 7-0 @ 1.08% ( -0.02) Other @ 4.4% Total : 82.61% | 1-1 @ 5.15% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 2.96% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 2.24% ( 0.08) Other @ 0.87% Total : 11.22% | 1-2 @ 1.94% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 1.69% ( 0.03) Other @ 2.52% Total : 6.16% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Sporting Lisbon | 14 | 12 | 0 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 36 |
2 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 33 | 9 | 24 | 34 |
3 | Benfica | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 8 | 24 | 32 |
4 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 16 | 13 | 3 | 27 |
5 | Braga | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 9 | 25 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 14 | 4 | 22 |
7 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 20 |
8 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 14 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 2 | 19 |
9 | Casa Pia | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 17 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 16 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 15 | 25 | -10 | 16 |
12 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 14 |
13 | Nacional | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 17 | -9 | 12 |
14 | AVS | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 12 |
15 | Estrela Amadora | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 12 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 14 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 11 |
17 | AroucaArouca | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 23 | -15 | 11 |
18 | SC FarenseFarense | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 20 | -13 | 9 |
> Primeira Liga Full Table |