Primeira Liga | Gameweek 22

Feb 18, 2024 at 3.30pm UK

Campo do Cevadeiro

Casa Pia
1 - 0
Arouca

Clayton (74')

FT(HT: 0-0)

Montero (64'), Simao (71')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Primeira Liga clash between Casa Pia and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Casa Pia

All competitions

Last Game: Rio Ave 1-0 Casa Pia
Sunday, February 11 at 3.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Arouca 3-2 Porto
Monday, February 12 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

Arouca have turned a corner in recent weeks and will be backing themselves against an out-of-sorts Casa Pia side. While we expect the hosts to put up a fight, we predict that the Arouquenses will pick up all three points at the Estadio Pina Manique. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 42.3%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 30.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.99%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.56%) and 0-2 (7.95%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 1-0 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.92%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.8% likelihood.

Result
Casa Pia	Draw	Arouca
30.32% ( -0.71)	27.38% ( 0.02)	42.3% ( 0.7)

Both teams to score 48.41% (

-0.34)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

43.08% (

-0.29)

56.91% (

0.29)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.17% (

-0.24)

77.83% (

0.23)

Casa Pia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.94% (

-0.67)

34.05% (

0.67)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

29.26% (

-0.73)

70.74% (

0.73)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.41% (

0.23)

26.58% (

-0.24)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.19% (

0.31)

61.8% (

-0.31)

Score Analysis

Casa Pia 30.32%

Arouca 42.29%

Draw 27.38%

Casa Pia	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 9.75% ( -0.07) 2-1 @ 6.96% ( -0.13) 2-0 @ 5.25% ( -0.14) 3-1 @ 2.5% ( -0.09) 3-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.09) 3-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.05) Other @ 2.32% Total : 30.32%	1-1 @ 12.92% 0-0 @ 9.05% ( 0.1) 2-2 @ 4.61% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.8% Total : 27.38%	0-1 @ 11.99% ( 0.21) 1-2 @ 8.56% ( 0.05) 0-2 @ 7.95% ( 0.19) 1-3 @ 3.78% ( 0.05) 0-3 @ 3.51% ( 0.11) 2-3 @ 2.04% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.25% ( 0.02) 0-4 @ 1.16% ( 0.04) Other @ 2.06% Total : 42.29%