Primeira Liga | Gameweek 18

Jan 20, 2024 at 3.30pm UK

Estadio Antonio Coimbra da Mota

Estoril
1 - 2
Arouca

Guitane (3')
Marques (50'), Carlos (90+3'), Pina (90+7')

FT(HT: 1-2)

Mujica (8'), Esgaio (45+1')
Santos (50'), Esgaio (87')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Primeira Liga clash between Estoril Praia and Arouca, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Estoril Praia

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Estoril 1-3 Moreirense
Saturday, January 13 at 8.30pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Arouca

All competitions

Primeira Liga

Last Game: Guimaraes 2-1 Arouca
Monday, January 15 at 8.15pm in Primeira Liga

Goals
for

Top scorers

We said: Estoril Praia 2-0 Arouca

Estoril and Arouca have both stumbled into the new year and will be looking to end their run of three consecutive defeats. While both sides are evenly matched on paper, we fancy the Canarinhos to claim all three points in front of their home supporters. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estoril Praia win with a probability of 38.24%. A win for Arouca had a probability of 36.52% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Estoril Praia win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (6.11%). The likeliest Arouca win was 0-1 (8.37%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood.

Result
Estoril Praia	Draw	Arouca
38.24% ( 0.07)	25.24% ( -0.01)	36.52% ( -0.06)

Both teams to score 56.87% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

53.21% (

0.03)

46.8% (

-0.03)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

30.95% (

0.03)

69.06% (

-0.03)

Estoril Praia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

75.88% (

0.05)

24.12% (

-0.05)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

41.58% (

0.08)

58.42% (

-0.07)

Arouca Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

74.95% (

-0.02)

25.05% (

0.02)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

40.27% (

-0.03)

59.73% (

0.03)

Score Analysis

Estoril Praia 38.24%

Arouca 36.52%

Draw 25.24%

Estoril Praia	Draw	Arouca
1-0 @ 8.59% ( 0) 2-1 @ 8.46% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 6.11% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 4.01% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.9% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 2.78% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.43% ( 0.01) 4-0 @ 1.03% ( 0.01) 4-2 @ 0.99% ( 0) Other @ 1.95% Total : 38.24%	1-1 @ 11.89% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.04% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.85% ( 0) 3-3 @ 1.28% ( 0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.24%	0-1 @ 8.37% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.23% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.79% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 3.8% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 2.7% 0-3 @ 2.67% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 1.31% ( -0) 2-4 @ 0.94% 0-4 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 1.79% Total : 36.52%