Primeira Liga | Gameweek 22
Feb 25, 2023 at 3.30pm UK
Estádio Municipal de Arouca
Arouca2 - 0Casa Pia
We said: Arouca 1-1 Casa Pia
Arouca and Casa Pia have enjoyed a solid campaign and both find themselves in contention for European football next season. Each side are evenly-matched heading into the weekend and we predict that they will cancel out each other's efforts at the Estadio Municipal de Arouca. Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 40.13%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (10.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
40.13% ( 0.06) | 28.31% ( -0.01) | 31.56% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 46.22% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
