Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arouca win with a probability of 40.13%. A win for Casa Pia had a probability of 31.56% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arouca win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.13%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Casa Pia win was 0-1 (10.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.2%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arouca would win this match.
Result | ||
Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
40.13% ( 0.06) | 28.31% ( -0.01) | 31.56% ( -0.05) |
Both teams to score 46.22% ( 0.01) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
40.11% ( 0.02) | 59.9% ( -0.02) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
19.84% ( 0.02) | 80.16% ( -0.01) |
Arouca Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
70.81% ( 0.05) | 29.2% ( -0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
34.86% ( 0.06) | 65.14% ( -0.05) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
65.28% ( -0.02) | 34.72% ( 0.03) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
28.55% ( -0.02) | 71.45% ( 0.03) |
Score Analysis |
Arouca | Draw | Casa Pia |
1-0 @ 12.48% ( 0.01) 2-1 @ 8.13% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 7.68% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.34% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 3.15% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.76% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.03% ( 0) 4-0 @ 0.97% ( 0) Other @ 1.59% Total : 40.13% | 1-1 @ 13.2% 0-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 4.3% ( 0) Other @ 0.68% Total : 28.31% | 0-1 @ 10.72% ( -0.01) 1-2 @ 6.98% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 5.67% ( -0.01) 1-3 @ 2.46% ( -0) 0-3 @ 2% ( -0.01) 2-3 @ 1.52% Other @ 2.2% Total : 31.56% |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | Germany | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
Q | Switzerland | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
3 | Hungary | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
4 | Scotland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
Team | P | W | D | L | PTS | |
Q | Austria | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
Q | France | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Q | Netherlands | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
4 | Poland | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |