Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sporting Lisbon win with a probability of 84.62%. A draw had a probability of 10.6% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 4.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sporting Lisbon win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (12.24%) and 4-0 (9.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.02%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (1.69%). The actual scoreline of 8-0 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sporting Lisbon would win this match.
Result | ||
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Casa Pia |
84.62% ( -0.01) | 10.58% ( 0.08) | 4.81% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 43.04% ( -0.98) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
69.33% ( -0.88) | 30.67% ( 0.89) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
48.01% ( -1.06) | 52% ( 1.07) |
Sporting Lisbon Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
94.89% ( -0.16) | 5.11% ( 0.16) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
79.69% ( -0.48) | 20.32% ( 0.49) |
Casa Pia Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
45.36% ( -0.95) | 54.64% ( 0.96) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
12.34% ( -0.59) | 87.67% ( 0.59) |
Score Analysis |
Sporting Lisbon | Draw | Casa Pia |
2-0 @ 12.35% ( 0.35) 3-0 @ 12.24% ( 0.22) 4-0 @ 9.1% ( 0.06) 1-0 @ 8.31% ( 0.32) 2-1 @ 7.46% ( -0) 3-1 @ 7.4% ( -0.08) 4-1 @ 5.5% ( -0.12) 5-0 @ 5.41% ( -0.02) 5-1 @ 3.27% ( -0.11) 6-0 @ 2.68% ( -0.04) 3-2 @ 2.24% ( -0.09) 4-2 @ 1.66% ( -0.09) 6-1 @ 1.62% ( -0.07) 7-0 @ 1.14% ( -0.03) 5-2 @ 0.99% ( -0.06) Other @ 3.25% Total : 84.62% | 1-1 @ 5.02% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 2.79% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 2.26% ( -0.07) Other @ 0.51% Total : 10.58% | 0-1 @ 1.69% ( 0.04) 1-2 @ 1.52% ( -0.03) Other @ 1.61% Total : 4.81% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
1 | Benfica | 15 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 37 | 8 | 29 | 38 |
2 | Sporting Lisbon | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 43 | 10 | 33 | 37 |
3 | Porto | 15 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 37 |
4 | Braga | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 27 | 16 | 11 | 28 |
5 | Santa ClaraSanta Clara | 15 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 16 | 15 | 1 | 27 |
6 | Vitoria de GuimaraesGuimaraes | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 23 |
7 | Casa Pia | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 16 | 18 | -2 | 20 |
8 | MoreirenseMoreirense | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 19 | 22 | -3 | 20 |
9 | FamalicaoFamalicao | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
10 | Gil Vicente | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 17 | 24 | -7 | 17 |
11 | Rio AveRio Ave | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 26 | -11 | 16 |
12 | Estrela Amadora | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 15 |
13 | Estoril PraiaEstoril | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 24 | -12 | 14 |
14 | AVS | 15 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 11 | 22 | -11 | 13 |
15 | Nacional | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 13 |
16 | BoavistaBoavista | 15 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 19 | -9 | 12 |
17 | SC FarenseFarense | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 21 | -12 | 12 |
18 | AroucaArouca | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 11 |
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